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Will The Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?

  • Philip Arestis
  • Malcolm Sawyer

It has been argued that the eurozone will face considerable economic difficulties. These will take a number of forms, two of which could qualify as "crises." First, the euro was launched at a time when unemployment levels were high (10 percent of the workforce) and disparities in the experience of unemployment and standards of living were particularly severe. These high levels of unemployment are likely to continue in the foreseeable future, and the policy arrangements that surround the operation of the euro, notably the objectives of the European Central Bank and the workings of the Stability and Growth Pact, will have a deflationary bias. These levels of and disparities in unemployment could be termed a crisis. Second, the introduction of the euro and the associated institutional setting could well serve to exacerbate tendencies toward financial crisis, including the volatility and subsequent collapse of asset prices and runs on the banking system. Some additional forces of instability may arise from the current trade imbalances and the relationship between the dollar and the euro as two major global currencies. Further, the operating arrangements of the European System of Central Banks can be seen as inadequate to cope with such financial crises.

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Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_322.

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Date of creation: Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_322
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.levyinstitute.org

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  1. Ivo Arnold, 1994. "The myth of a stable European money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 249-259, July.
  2. Hayo, Bernd, 2000. "The demand for money in Austria," ZEI Working Papers B 06-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  3. Arestis, Philip & McCauley, Kevin & Sawyer, Malcolm, 2001. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 113-30, January.
  4. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04.
  5. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2000. "The Economic and Monetary Union: Current and Future Prospects," Macroeconomics 0004029, EconWPA.
  6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 371-391, October.
  8. Wolters, Jürgen & Teräsvirta, Timo & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1996. "Modelling the Demand for M3 in the unified Germany," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 113, Stockholm School of Economics.
  9. Antonio Fatás, 1998. "Does EMU need a fiscal federation?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 163-203, 04.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
  11. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
  12. repec:sae:niesru:v:152:y::i:1:p:76-96 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Funke, Michael & Hall, Stephen & Ruhwedel, Ralf, 1999. "Shock Hunting: The Relative Importance of Industry-Specific, Region-Specific and Aggregate Shocks in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 49-65, Supplemen.
  14. Mark Holmes, 2000. "The Velocity of Circulation: Some new evidence on international integration," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 449-459.
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