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Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey

  • Mete Feridun

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Loughborough University)

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    This article aims at identifying the leading indicators of currency crises in Turkey in its post-liberalization history through the signals approach introduced by Kaminsky et al (1998). Based on a broad set of potential indicators, a number of variables are found to be persistently signaling the currency crises during the period 1980:01-2006:06. Particularly, variables such as short-term debt/international reserves, imports, exports, M2/international reserves, and current account balance/GDP are consistent with the results of previous work in the literature. Analysis of the average lead time of the indicators reveals that the first signal is issued 4.4 months before a crisis erupts with public debt/GDP offering the longest lead time with 10.2 months, and government consumption/GDP offering the shortest with 2.2 months. Analysis of the persistence of the indicators reveals that the indicator issuing the most persistent signals is the government consumption/GDP and the one issuing the least persistent signals is FDI/GDP. Results are encouraging from the vantage point of an early warning system since signaling, on average, occurs sufficiently early to allow preemptive policy actions.

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    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/ec/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/mferidun_wp4.pdf
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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2006_26.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Date of revision: Dec 2006
    Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2006_26
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    Web page: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/research/economics/index.html

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    1. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shahidur Rahman & Lian Hwa Tan & Ooi Lyn Hew & Yih San Tan, 2004. "Identifying Financial Distress Indicators of Selected Banks in Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 45-57, 03.
    5. repec:zbw:iwhdps:19-06 is not listed on IDEAS
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    8. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "Mis-Leading Indicators?: The Argentinean Currency Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 327, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    10. Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Herrara, Santiago & Garcia, Conrado, 1999. "User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2233, The World Bank.
    13. Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Paolo Mauro & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Marcos Chamon, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention," IMF Occasional Papers 237, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
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