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Crisis-Specific Gulfization of Stock Markets: Multipolar Shock Sources in GCC Spillovers

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  • Saito,Jun

Abstract

This study examines crisis-period spillovers between GCC stock markets and recipient markets in MENA, Asia, and Africa through the lens of “Gulfization.” Using VARX models and 12-step-ahead FEVD, it compares the Global Financial Crisis, the oil price bust, and the COVID-19 crisis. The results show that GCC-related spillovers are strongest during COVID-19 and weakest during the oil price bust. They also reveal a multipolar structure: Saudi Arabia does not consistently dominate, while Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Oman, and Kuwait emerge as important contributors depending on the crisis and recipient market. These findings suggest that crisis-specific Gulfization is a multipolar financial linkage shaped by crisis type and recipient-market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Saito,Jun, 2026. "Crisis-Specific Gulfization of Stock Markets: Multipolar Shock Sources in GCC Spillovers," IDE Discussion Papers 1012, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper1012
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/2002009/files/IDP001012_001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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