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How Could Germany Escape the Demographic Trap?

Author

Listed:
  • Kahlenberg, Christoph

  • Spermann, Alexander

    (University of Freiburg)

Abstract

Demographic change is perceived as a threat for wealth rather than a challenge in Germany. The debate on skilled labor shortage is a proof for this view. The paper surveys the most important German studies on skilled labor shortage. Meanwhile, a consensus on solutions has emerged in academia. Increasing the participation rates of elderly, women and facilitating qualified immigration as well as improving productivity are the mainstream recommendations. The paper provides descriptive statistical evidence that temporary agency work could contribute to solve the skilled labor shortage problem via these four channels. However, it is far from clear that productivity increases are the most important and most sustainable way out of the demographic trap. Against this background the government's demographic strategy is assessed. It turns out that the government has not a coherent strategy yet to solve the demographic issues ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Kahlenberg, Christoph & Spermann, Alexander, 2012. "How Could Germany Escape the Demographic Trap?," IZA Policy Papers 48, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izapps:pp48
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    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/pp48.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heckman, James J. & Kautz, Tim, 2012. "Hard evidence on soft skills," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 451-464.
    2. Spermann, Alexander, 2011. "The New Role of Temporary Agency Work in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 6180, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2006. "Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking outside the Wage Structure," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 235-270, April.
    4. Kappler, Marcus & Bonin, Holger & Sachs, Andreas, 2011. "Forschungsbericht "Wertschöpfungseffekte der Fachkräftesicherung"," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110533.
    5. Schmid, Günther, 2010. "Non-Standard Employment and Labour Force Participation: A Comparative View of the Recent Development in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 5087, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262012638, December.
    7. Karl Brenke, 2010. "Fachkräftemangel kurzfristig noch nicht in Sicht," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(46), pages 2-15.
    8. Dietz, Martin & Walwei, Ulrich, 2011. "Germany - no country for old workers?," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(4), pages 363-376.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan & Thorben Korfhage, 2015. "Indirect Fiscal Effects of Long-Term Care Insurance," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1520, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets

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