Minimum Wages and Employment: Reconsidering the Use of a Time-Series Approach as an Evaluation Tool
The time-series approach used in the minimum wage literature essentially aims to estimate a treatment effect of increasing the minimum wage. In this paper, we employ a novel approach based on aggregate time-series data that allows us to determine if minimum wage changes have significant effects on employment. This involves the use of tests for structural breaks as a device for identifying discontinuities in the data which potentially represent treatment effects. In an application based on Australian data, the tentative conclusion is that the introduction of minimum wage legislation in Australia in 1997 and subsequent minimum wage increases appear not to have had any significant negative employment effects for teenagers.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
| Length: | 37 pages |
| Date of creation: | Feb 2010 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Publication status: | published in: British Journal of Industrial Relations, 2011, 49, s376 - s401 |
| Handle: | RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4748 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Phone: +49 228 3894 223 Fax: +49 228 3894 180 Web page: http://www.iza.org
|
| Order Information: | Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997.
"Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's examples of Andrews-Ploberger test," Statistical Software Components RTZ00087, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew Leigh, 2007.
"Does Raising the Minimum Wage Help the Poor?,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 432-445, December.
- Andrew Leigh, 2005. "Does Raising the Minimum Wage Help the Poor?," CEPR Discussion Papers 501, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Jaehwan Park & Ronald Ratti, 1998. "Stationary data and the effect of the minimum wage on teenage employment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 435-440.
- Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 1999.
"Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs,"
NBER Working Papers
7226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
- Cooper, Suzanne & Piehl, Anne Morrison & Braga, Anthony & Kennedy, David, 2001. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," Working Paper Series rwp01-019, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Papers
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Matthew James & Mark Wooden & Peter Dawkins, 2001. "Minimum Wages And The Fallacy Of The Inflated Denominator," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 20(3), pages 59-70, 09.
- Harding, Don & Harding, Glenys, 2004. "Minimum wages in Australia: an analysis of the impact on small and medium sized businesses," MPRA Paper 25, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002.
"Program evaluation and random program starts,"
Working Paper Series
2003:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- Peter Fredriksson & Per Johansson, 2003. "Program Evaluation and Random Program Starts," CESifo Working Paper Series 844, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program Evaluation and Random Program Starts," Working Paper Series 2003:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Hristos Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2008.
"Publication Selection Bias in Minimum-Wage Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis,"
Economics Series
2008_14, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Hristos Doucouliagos & T. D. Stanley, 2009. "Publication Selection Bias in Minimum-Wage Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 406-428, 06.
- Stephen Bazen & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 2002.
"Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(s1), pages 699-725, 08.
- Bazen, Stephen & Marimoutou, Velayoudom, 2002. " Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(0), pages 699-725, Supplemen.
- Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 2007.
"Minimum Wages and Employment,"
IZA Discussion Papers
2570, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Neumark, David & Wascher, William L., 2007. "Minimum Wages and Employment," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 3(1–2), pages 1-182, March.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002.
"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
- Alison J. Wellington, 1991. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment Status of Youths: An Update," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(1), pages 27-46.
- Jushan Bai, 1995.
"Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time,"
Working papers
95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
- Ian Watson, 2004. "Minimum Wages and Employment: Comment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 37(2), pages 166-172, 06.
- Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Earnings and Employment Effects of Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany after Unification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 74-90, January.
- Andrew Leigh, 2003. "Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(4), pages 361-373.
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.