IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18966.html

Why Do People Migrate Irregularly? Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in West Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Bah, Tijan

    (World Bank)

  • Batista, Catia

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

Irregular migration to Europe by sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many Sub-Saharan Africans. This study examines the drivers of irregular migration decisions using an incentivized lab-in-the-field experiment in rural Gambia, the African country with the highest per-capita rate of irregular migration to Europe. Potential migrants substantially overestimate the probability of dying en route, reporting an average belief of 51 percent compared with a best available estimate of about 20 percent. In the experiment, reducing the probability of dying en route from 50 to 20 percent raises willingness to migrate irregularly by 3.0 percentage points, while reducing the probability of obtaining legal residence from 50 to 30 percent lowers it by 2.1 points. Our results highlight the importance of potential migrants' prior beliefs in shaping responses to information and suggest that information policies that fail to account for these beliefs may backfire.

Suggested Citation

  • Bah, Tijan & Batista, Catia, 2026. "Why Do People Migrate Irregularly? Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in West Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 18966, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18966
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18966.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Batista, Catia & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Testing classic theories of migration in the lab," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Nava Ashraf & Diego Aycinena & Claudia Martínez A. & Dean Yang, 2015. "Savings in Transnational Households: A Field Experiment among Migrants from El Salvador," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 332-351, May.
    3. repec:sae:mrxval:v:48:y:2014:i:1_suppl:p:37-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bah, Tijan L. & Batista, Catia & Gubert, Flore & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Can information and alternatives to irregular migration reduce “backway” migration from The Gambia?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Tjaden, Jasper & Dunsch, Felipe Alexander, 2021. "The effect of peer-to-peer risk information on potential migrants – Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    7. Sandrine Mesplé-Somps & Björn Nilsson, 2020. "Role models and migration intentions," Working Papers DT/2020/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    8. Travis Baseler, 2023. "Hidden Income and the Perceived Returns to Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 321-352, October.
    9. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Stark, Oded, 1989. "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 905-926, August.
    10. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
    11. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2024. "The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    12. De Arcangelis, Giuseppe & Joxhe, Majlinda & McKenzie, David & Tiongson, Erwin & Yang, Dean, 2015. "Directing remittances to education with soft and hard commitments: Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment and new product take-up among Filipino migrants in Rome," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 197-208.
    13. Batista, Catia & Silverman, Dan & Yang, Dean, 2015. "Directed giving: Evidence from an inter-household transfer experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 2-21.
    14. Frédéric Docquier & Giovanni Peri & Ilse Ruyssen, 2016. "The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 12, pages 361-423, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Simone Bertoli & Ilse Ruyssen, 2018. "Networks and migrants’ intended destination," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 705-728.
    16. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    18. Frohnweiler, Sarah & Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara, 2024. "Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    19. Chort, Isabelle, 2014. "Mexican Migrants to the US: What Do Unrealized Migration Intentions Tell Us About Gender Inequalities?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 535-552.
    20. Catia Batista & Gaia Narciso, 2018. "Migrant Remittances and Information Flows: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 203-219.
    21. Tijan Bah, 2023. "Can Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration Reduce Backway Migration from The Gambia?," NCID Working Papers 05/2022, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    22. Frohnweiler, Sarah & Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara, 2024. "Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 171, pages 1-17.
    23. Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara & Sievert, Maximiliane, 2026. "Is irregular migration responsive to recent German asylum policy adjustments?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    24. Beam, Emily A., 2016. "Do job fairs matter? Experimental evidence on the impact of job-fair attendance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 32-40.
    25. Gathmann, Christina, 2008. "Effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from migrant smuggling along the southwestern border," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 1926-1941, October.
    26. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
    27. Cruces, Guillermo & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Tetaz, Martin, 2013. "Biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from a survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 100-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Parag Mahajan & Dean Yang, 2020. "Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and US Immigration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 250-277, April.
    2. Batista, Catia & Costa, David M. & Freitas, Pedro & Lima, Gonçalo & Reis, Ana B., 2025. "What matters for the decision to study abroad? A lab-in-the-field experiment in Cape Verde," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2024. "International migration and illegal costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe smuggling routes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Fuchs, Andreas & Gröger, André & Heidland, Tobias & Wellner, Lukas, 2023. "The effect of foreign aid on migration: Global micro evidence from world bank projects," Kiel Working Papers 2257, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Batista, Catia & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Testing classic theories of migration in the lab," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. repec:wbk:wbrwps:10250 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Giacomo Battiston & Lucia Corno & Eliana La Ferrara, 2024. "Informing Risky Migration: Evidence from a field experiment in Guinea," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2434, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    8. Lyu, Zhuoyang & Li, Zhengsheng & Yu, Li & Jiang, Yue, 2025. "Bad news travels fast: Extreme rainfall, migration networks, and migration," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Bah, Tijan L. & Batista, Catia & Gubert, Flore & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Can information and alternatives to irregular migration reduce “backway” migration from The Gambia?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    10. Giacomo Battiston & Lucia Corno & Eliana La Ferrara, 2024. "Informing Risky Migration: Evidence from a field experiment in Guinea," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def136, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    11. Bhatiya, Apurav Yash & Chakravorty, Bhaskar & Imbert, Clément & Rathelot, Roland, 2026. "How do beliefs and preferences over jobs affect enrollment in vocational training: Experimental evidence from India," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Bogatzki, Tamara & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2026. "Trafficking as choice? Evidence from Nigeria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 182, pages 1-19.
    13. Clemens, Michael A. & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Migration from developing countries: Selection, income elasticity, and Simpson’s paradox," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    14. Mariapia Mendola, 2018. "Global evidence on prospective migrants from developing countries," Working Papers 387, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 19 Sep 2018.
    15. Gröger, André, 2021. "Easy come, easy go? Economic shocks, labor migration and the family left behind," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. Guido Friebel & Miriam Manchin & Mariapia Mendola & Giovanni Prarolo, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," Working Papers 393, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2018.
    17. Michael D. Smith & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Financial inclusion and international migration in low- and middle-income countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 341-370, July.
    18. Di Maio,Michele & Elmallakh,Nelly Youssef Louis William & Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio, 2024. "News Sentiment in Destination Countries and Migration Choices : Evidence from Libya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10754, The World Bank.
    19. Ur Rehman, Obeid, 2023. "Spousal communication and information sharing: Evidence from migrants and their spouses," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Frohnweiler, Sarah & Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara, 2024. "Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    21. Guido, Friebel & Miriam, Manchin & Mariapia, Mendola & Giovanni, Prarolo, 2017. "Human Smuggling and Intentions to Migrate: Global Evidence from a Supply Shock along Africa-to-Europe Migration Routes," Working Papers 375, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18966. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.