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Why Do People Migrate Irregularly? Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in West Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Bah, Tijan

    (World Bank)

  • Batista, Catia

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

Irregular migration to Europe by sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many Sub-Saharan Africans. This study examines the drivers of irregular migration decisions using an incentivized lab-in-the-field experiment in rural Gambia, the African country with the highest per-capita rate of irregular migration to Europe. Potential migrants substantially overestimate the probability of dying en route, reporting an average belief of 51 percent compared with a best available estimate of about 20 percent. In the experiment, reducing the probability of dying en route from 50 to 20 percent raises willingness to migrate irregularly by 3.0 percentage points, while reducing the probability of obtaining legal residence from 50 to 30 percent lowers it by 2.1 points. Our results highlight the importance of potential migrants' prior beliefs in shaping responses to information and suggest that information policies that fail to account for these beliefs may backfire.

Suggested Citation

  • Bah, Tijan & Batista, Catia, 2026. "Why Do People Migrate Irregularly? Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in West Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 18966, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18966
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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