IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18257.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rating Government Procurement Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Deryugina, Tatyana

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Zaldokas, Alminas

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Fedyk, Anastassia

    (University of California at Berkeley)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Hodson, James

    (AI for Good)

  • Sologoub, Ilona

    (VoxUkraine)

Abstract

We develop a novel, scalable method for assessing the quality of public procurement systems using standard administrative data. Our approach compares the distribution of procurement opportunities to the distribution of contract awards across firms. We first derive a simple theoretical benchmark that relates the expected distribution of contract value winning firms, measured as a Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), to the distribution of auction values, measured as a respective HHI, and the number of winning firms. Significant deviations of winning firms' HHI from this benchmark indicate potential governance failures such as corruption or unchecked collusion. Our method requires no subjective input, is transparent and reproducible, and allows for meaningful comparisons across countries, industry sectors, and over time. We use procurement data from Ukraine and EU member states in 2018-2021 to assess the performance of five large sectors. Ukraine's procurement performance in four of the five sectors is comparable to many other European countries, but Ukraine's construction sector consistently displays the largest excess concentration among all countries considered, consistent with anecdotal evidence of corruption in this sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Deryugina, Tatyana & Zaldokas, Alminas & Fedyk, Anastassia & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Hodson, James & Sologoub, Ilona, 2025. "Rating Government Procurement Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 18257, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18257
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18257.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erica Bosio & Simeon Djankov & Edward Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Public Procurement in Law and Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1117, April.
    2. Francesco Decarolis, 2014. "Awarding Price, Contract Performance, and Bids Screening: Evidence from Procurement Auctions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 108-132, January.
    3. Robert H. Porter & J. Douglas Zona, 1999. "Ohio School Milk Markets: An Analysis of Bidding," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 263-288, Summer.
    4. Sylvain Chassang & Kei Kawai & Jun Nakabayashi & Juan Ortner, 2022. "Robust Screens for Noncompetitive Bidding in Procurement Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 315-346, January.
    5. Oriana Bandiera & Andrea Prat & Tommaso Valletti, 2009. "Active and Passive Waste in Government Spending: Evidence from a Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1278-1308, September.
    6. Ari Hyytinen & Sofia Lundberg & Otto Toivanen, 2018. "Design of public procurement auctions: evidence from cleaning contracts," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(2), pages 398-426, June.
    7. Patrick Bajari & Lixin Ye, 2003. "Deciding Between Competition and Collusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 971-989, November.
    8. Kei Kawai & Jun Nakabayashi & Juan Ortner & Sylvain Chassang, 2023. "Using Bid Rotation and Incumbency to Detect Collusion: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 376-403.
    9. Porter, Robert H & Zona, J Douglas, 1993. "Detection of Bid Rigging in Procurement Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 518-538, June.
    10. John Asker, 2010. "A Study of the Internal Organization of a Bidding Cartel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 724-762, June.
    11. Jean-François Houde & Terence R. Johnson & Molly Lipscomb & Laura A. Schechter, 2022. "Imperfect Competition and Sanitation: Evidence from Randomized Auctions in Senegal," NBER Working Papers 30514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno Baránek & Leon Musolff & Vitezslav Titl, 2025. "Detection of Collusive Networks in Multistage Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 12073, CESifo.
    2. Martin, Julien & Pesendorfer, Martin & Shannon, Jack, 2025. "Underbidding for oil and gas tracts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Aaltio, Aapo & Buri, Riku & Jokelainen, Antto & Lundberg, Johan, 2025. "Complementary bidding and cartel detection: Evidence from Nordic asphalt markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Robert Clark & Decio Coviello & Jean-Fran�ois Gauthier & Art Shneyerov, 2018. "Bid Rigging and Entry Deterrence in Public Procurement: Evidence from an Investigation into Collusion and Corruption in Quebec," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 301-363.
    5. Granlund, David & Rudholm, Niklas, 2023. "Calculating the probability of collusion based on observed price patterns," Umeå Economic Studies 1014, Umeå University, Department of Economics, revised 13 Oct 2023.
    6. Lu, Jiaxuan, 2023. "The economics of China’s between-city height competition: A regression discontinuity approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Huber, Martin & Imhof, David, 2023. "Flagging cartel participants with deep learning based on convolutional neural networks," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. David Imhof & Emanuel W Viklund & Martin Huber, 2025. "Catching Bid-rigging Cartels with Graph Attention Neural Networks," Papers 2507.12369, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    9. Hannes Wallimann & David Imhof & Martin Huber, 2023. "A Machine Learning Approach for Flagging Incomplete Bid-Rigging Cartels," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1669-1720, December.
    10. Clara Calini & Alessandra Catenazzo & Elisabetta Iossa, 2025. "Using Multiple Tools to Enhance Competition in Public Procurement," CEIS Research Paper 594, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Feb 2025.
    11. Martinez-Carrasco, José & ConceiçaÞo, Otavio & Dezolt, Ana Lúcia, 2023. "More Information, Lower Price? Access Market-based Reference Prices and Gains in Public Procurement Efficiency," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12754, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. De Leverano, Adriano, 2023. "Clustered bids in first-price auctions: Collusion or competition?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    13. de Leverano, Adriano, 2019. "Collusion through market sharing agreements: Evidence from Quebec's road paving market," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-053, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. John Asker & Chaim Fershtman & Jihye Jeon & Ariel Pakes, 2020. "A computational framework for analyzing dynamic auctions: The market impact of information sharing," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(3), pages 805-839, September.
    15. Clark, Robert & Coviello, Decio & de Leverano, Adriano, 2020. "Complementary bidding and the collusive arrangement: Evidence from an antitrust investigation," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-052, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Martin Huber & David Imhof & Rieko Ishii, 2022. "Transnational machine learning with screens for flagging bid‐rigging cartels," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1074-1114, July.
    17. Wang, Hong, 2017. "Information acquisition versus information manipulation in multi-period procurement markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 48-59.
    18. Bruno Baranek & L. Musolff & Vitezslav Titl, 2021. "Detection of Collusive Networks in E-procurement," Working Papers 2111, Utrecht School of Economics.
    19. Huang, Yangguang & Xia, Jijun, 2019. "Procurement auctions under quality manipulation corruption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 380-399.
    20. Cerrone, Claudia & Hermstrüwer, Yoan & Robalo, Pedro, 2021. "Debarment and collusion in procurement auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 114-143.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.