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Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model

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  • Bonin, Holger

    () (IZA)

  • Schneider, Hilmar

    () (IZA)

Abstract

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model’s stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization interpretation of agents’ revealed choice. Computational experiments confirm that analytical prediction of transitions probabilities might perform substantially better than the established calibration method with few repetitions. However, results obtained in an empirical application studying labor supply responses to social insurance reform in Germany suggest that previous calibration-based results accurately indicate the direction of incentive effects, while underpredicting small transitions frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonin, Holger & Schneider, Hilmar, 2004. "Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model," IZA Discussion Papers 1015, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maddala,G. S., 1986. "Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521338257.
    2. Gerfin, Michael & Leu, Robert E., 2003. "The Impact of In-Work Benefits on Poverty and Household Labour Supply: A Simulation Study for Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 762, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
    4. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
    5. Euwals, Rob & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "Desired and actual labour supply of unmarried men and women in the Netherlands," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-118, March.
    6. Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-155, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    2. Jean-François Carpantier & Christelle Sapata, 2016. "Empirical welfare analysis: when preferences matter," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 46(3), pages 521-542, March.
    3. Stichnoth, Holger, 2014. "Short-run fertility effects of parental leave benefits: Evidence from a structural model," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-069, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    4. Stefan Boeters & Luc Savard, 2011. "The Labour Market in CGE Models," Cahiers de recherche 11-20, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    5. Olivier Bargain, 2004. "On modeling household labor supply with taxation," DELTA Working Papers 2004-14, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    6. Wiemers Jürgen & Bruckmeier Kerstin, 2009. "Forecasting Behavioural and Distributional Effects of the Bofinger-Walwei Model using Microsimulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 492-511, August.
    7. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioral microsimulation; logistic distributions; conditional logit model; social insurance reform;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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