Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model
The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model’s stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization interpretation of agents’ revealed choice. Computational experiments confirm that analytical prediction of transitions probabilities might perform substantially better than the established calibration method with few repetitions. However, results obtained in an empirical application studying labor supply responses to social insurance reform in Germany suggest that previous calibration-based results accurately indicate the direction of incentive effects, while underpredicting small transitions frequencies.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published in: Economics Letters, 2006, 90 (1), 102-107|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerfin, Michael & Leu, Robert E., 2003.
"The Impact of In-Work Benefits on Poverty and Household Labour Supply: A Simulation Study for Switzerland,"
IZA Discussion Papers
762, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Michael Gerfin & Robert E. Leu, 2003. "The Impact of In-Work Benefits on Poverty and Household Labour Supply. A simulation study for Switzerland," Diskussionsschriften dp0304, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
- Maddala,G. S., 1986. "Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521338257.
- Euwals, Rob & van Soest, Arthur, 1999.
"Desired and actual labour supply of unmarried men and women in the Netherlands,"
Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-118, March.
- Euwals, R.W. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "Desired and Actual Labour Supply of Unmarried Men and Women in the Netherlands," Discussion Paper 1996-23, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
- Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-55, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.