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A static approach to the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model: an application for several negative yield cases

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia
  • Vítor Hugo Ferreira Carvalho

Abstract

The appearance of negative bond yields presents significant challenges for the fixed income markets, which mainly concern related forecasting models. The Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model (NSS) is one of the models that is most frequently used by central banks to estimate the term structure of interest rates. The objective of this study is to evaluate the application of the NSS model to fit the yield curve of a set of 20 countries, the majority from the Eurozone, which registered negative sovereign bond yields. We conclude that the model adjusted well for all countries’ yield curves, although no changes or constraints were introduced. In addition, a comparison was carried out between market instantaneous interest rate and the interest rate for the very distant future, which the model can predict, with good results for the instantaneous interest rate. An evaluation of the possible behaviour of shared debt securities (i.e. Eurobonds) was also analysed. In conclusion, the NSS model seems to remain a valuable, easy to use, and adaptable tool, to fit negative yield curves, for monetary policy institutions and market players alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & Vítor Hugo Ferreira Carvalho, 2018. "A static approach to the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model: an application for several negative yield cases," Working Papers REM 2018/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0352018
    as

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    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_035_2018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
    4. Manfred Gilli & Stefan Große & Enrico Schumann, 2010. "Calibrating the Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model," Working Papers 031, COMISEF.
    5. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    yield curve; negative bond yields; Eurobonds; Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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