A journey into troubled waters?

This report investigates the evolving occupational outcomes among young cohorts in Europe from 1995 to 2020. Using data from the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS), we evaluate how the likelihood of being employed in a cognitive occupation and receiving a temporary job has changed over time for young workers with different levels of education. Results reveal diverging fortunes. On the one hand, the probability of obtaining cognitive jobs has remained steady for tertiary-educated workers, but it has declined significantly for young workers who have only attained upper secondary education, especially in Southern and Northern Europe. On the other hand, the likelihood of receiving a temporary contract has increased substantially for more recent cohorts of young workers in all European areas, particularly for those with only upper secondary education. These findings call for a reflection on the future of jobs that have a large cognitive component (and for which higher education is generally a necessary requirement), especially in light of the recent development of artificial intelligence. On the other hand, the increased use of temporary contracts among young workers, especially in some EU areas, raises concerns on the long-term sustainability of the socio-economic (and demographic) situation of the EU, considering that educational and parenting choices tend to be concentrated in the earlier stages of the life-cycle.