Produtos Agropecuários: Para quem Exportar?
Este trabalho procura discutir fatores de atração das exportações agropecuárias brasileiras. Para tal implementou-se um modelo gravitacional acrescido de procedimentos econométricos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios, além da abordagem por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO). As principais variáveis identificadas como determinantes dessas exportações foram a distância para os mercados de destino, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) dos parceiros comerciais e a localização geográfica do país importador. Ademais, verificaram-se efeitos puzzles para a taxa de câmbio, o perfil agroexportador do país importador e a participação do setor agrícola na economia de destino. Por fim, o trabalho realça uma diferenciação das variáveis relevantes em função de características específicas dos parceiros comerciais brasileiros. The paper discussed the main factors that explain the Brazilian agricultural exports. In order to achieve this goal, the paper applied a gravity model that includes fixed and random effects estimations, besides the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach. Distance, trade partners` GDP, and geographical localization were the significant variables. Moreover, puzzle effects are associated to exchange rate, partners` agricultural exports profile and the partners` agricultural share in GDP. Finally, this study highlights the potential change of the relevant variables because of specific characteristics of each commercial Brazilian partner.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2008|
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