Statistical Risk Analysis for Real Estate Collateral Valuation using Bayesian Distributional and Quantile Regression
The Basel II framework strictly defines the conditions under which financial institutions are authorized to accept real estate as collateral in order to decrease their credit risk. A widely used concept for its valuation is the hedonic approach. It assumes, that a property can be characterized by a bundle of covariates that involves both individual attributes of the building itself and locational attributes of the region where the building is located in. Each of these attributes can be assigned an implicit price, summing up to the value of the entire property. With respect to value-at-risk concepts financial institutions are often not only interested in the expected value but also in different quantiles of the distribution of real estate prices. To meet these requirements, we develop and compare multilevel structured additive regression models based on GAMLSS type approaches and quantile regression, respectively. Our models involve linear, nonlinear and spatial effects. Nonlinear effects are modeled with P-splines, spatial effects are represented by Gaussian Markov random fields. Due to the high complexity of the models statistical inference is fully Bayesian and based on highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitätsstraße 15, A - 6020 Innsbruck|
Web page: http://www.uibk.ac.at/fakultaeten/volkswirtschaft_und_statistik/index.html.en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McMillen, Daniel P., 2008. "Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics, neighborhood, or coefficients?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 573-589, November.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Marco Helbich & Wolfgang Brunauer & Eric Vaz & Peter Nijkamp, 2013.
"Spatial Heterogeneity in Hedonic House Price Models: The Case of Austria,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
13-171/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
- Marco Helbich & Wolfgang Brunauer & Eric Vaz & Peter Nijkamp, 2014. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Hedonic House Price Models: The Case of Austria," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(2), pages 390-411, February.
- Koenker,Roger, 2005.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, September.
- Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
- Stefan Lang & Nikolaus Umlauf & Peter Wechselberger & Kenneth Harttgen & Thomas Kneib, 2012. "Multilevel structured additive regression," Working Papers 2012-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
- Nadja Klein & Thomas Kneib & Stefan Lang, 2013. "Bayesian Structured Additive Distributional Regression," Working Papers 2013-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Yu, Keming & Moyeed, Rana A., 2001. "Bayesian quantile regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 437-447, October.
- Yue, Yu Ryan & Rue, Håvard, 2011. "Bayesian inference for additive mixed quantile regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 84-96, January.
- R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554.
- Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2008.
"Spatial Hedonic Models Of Airport Noise, Proximity, And Housing Prices,"
Journal of Regional Science,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 859-878.
- Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2006. "Spatial hedonic models of airport noise, proximity, and housing prices," Working Papers 2006-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2014-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janette Walde)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.