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Iran-Krieg durchkreuzt Hoffnung auf schnelle Erholung - Prognose-Update: die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2026

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Breuer

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sebastian Dullien

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Alexander Herzog-Stein

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Christoph Paetz

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sebastian Watzka

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft wird derzeit durch den Iran-Krieg und den damit einhergehenden Energiepreisschock belastet. In der Folge schwächt sich das Wachstum des Welthandels von 4,5 % im vergangenen Jahr auf 3,0 % in diesem Jahr ab, bevor es 2027 wieder auf 3,5 % ansteigen wird. Die deutsche Konjunktur wird sich im Jahr 2026 aufgrund des Energiepreisschocks deutlich abschwächen und die zuvor angelegte Erholung kommt zum Erliegen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2026 wird das BIP um 0,6 % zunehmen und 2027 um 0,9 %. Vor dem Ausbruch des Iran-Kriegs wurde damit gerechnet, dass sich im Jahr 2026 das Wachstum der Binnenkonjunktur beschleunigen würde, da zum einen eine weitere Erholung desprivaten Konsums als Folge steigender Realeinkommen abzusehen war, zum anderen die Fiskalpolitik erhebliche Impulse setzt. Diese positive Entwicklung wird nun von dem neuerlichen Energiepreisschock überlagert. Die Beschäftigung wird in diesem Jahr um 0,4 % und im kommenden Jahr um 0,1 % zurückgehen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird um 0,1 Prozentpunkte in diesem Jahr auf 6,4 % zunehmen und im kommenden Jahr 6,3 % betragen. Die Verbraucherpreise werden aufgrund des Energiepreisschocks im Jahr 2026 um2,8 % und im Jahr 2027 um 2,3 % zunehmen. Das Budgetdefizit steigt bei einer deutlich expansiven Ausrichtung der Fiskalpolitik auf 3,8 % bzw. 4,2 % in den Jahren 2026 und 2027. Folgt auf die jüngste Vereinbarung zwischen den USA und dem Iran in den nächsten Wochen eine vollständige Öffnung der Straße von Hormus, könnte der Rohölpreis zügig auf das Niveau von Ende 2025 fallen und eine günstigere Entwicklung wäre realistisch.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Breuer & Sebastian Dullien & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Christoph Paetz & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2026. "Iran-Krieg durchkreuzt Hoffnung auf schnelle Erholung - Prognose-Update: die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2026," IMK Report 201-2026, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:201-2026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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