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Aufschwung breit aufgestellt! Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2017/2018

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sebastian Watzka

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem ausbalancierten und robusten Aufschwung. Das IMK prognostiziert für das Jahr 2018 einen Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) von 2,3 %, nach ebenfalls 2,3 % für dieses Jahr. Der Anstieg des privaten Konsums bleibt trotz einer höheren Teuerung kräftig. Maßgeblich hierfür sind die stärker steigenden verfügbaren Einkommen infolge höherer Bruttolöhne und -gehälter pro Beschäftigen sowie eines vermehrten Beschäftigungsaufbaus. Eine hohe Kapazitätsauslastung und anhaltend günstige Absatzaussichten begünstigen die Investitionen in Ausrüstungen, so dass diese verstärkt an Schwung gewinnen. Die Ausfuhren profitieren von der etwas dynamischeren Konjunktur der Weltwirtschaft, insbesondere von dem sich festigenden Aufschwung in den übrigen Ländern des Euroraums. Außerdem verfügt die deutsche Exportwirtschaft über eine anhaltend hohe preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Überhitzungserscheinungen zeichnen sich in der deutschen Wirtschaft derzeit nicht ab. So nehmen die Lohnstückkosten trotz der noch relativ niedrigen Produktivitätsentwicklung mit einer Rate unterhalb des Inflationsziels der EZB zu. Die Verbraucherpreise steigen in diesem Jahr um 1,7 % und 2018 um 1,5 %. Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt 2017 5,7 % und im nächsten Jahr 5,5 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hohlfeld & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Aufschwung breit aufgestellt! Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2017/2018," IMK Report 132-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:132-2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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