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Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Economies

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  • Mr. Julian T Chow

Abstract

In recent years, firms in emerging market countries have increased borrowing, particularly in foreign currency, owing to easy access to global capital markets, prolonged low interest rates and good investment opportunities. This paper discusses the trends in emerging market corporate debt and leverage, and illustrates how those firms are vulnerable to interest rate, exchange rate and earnings shocks. The results of a stress test show that while corporate sector risk remains moderate in most emerging economies, a combination of macroeconomic and financial shocks could significantly erode firms’ ability to service debt and lead to higher debt at risk, especially in countries with high shares of foreign currency debt and low natural hedges.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Julian T Chow, 2015. "Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/216, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "South Africa: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/218, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & Cordonier, Rachel & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2023. "The rise in foreign currency bonds: The role of US monetary policy and capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Jorge Fernández B. & M. Ignacia Valencia B. & Francisco Vásquez L., 2019. "Descalce cambiario del sector corporativo no financiero chileno y su efecto en resultados," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(1), pages 102-130, April.
    4. Jorge Fernández B. & Fernando Pino M. & Francisco Vásquez L., 2020. "Corporate-Sector Functional Currency: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 882, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Daniel O. Beltran & Keshav Garud & Aaron Rosenblum, 2017. "Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt : How Concerned Should We Be?," IFDP Notes 2017-06-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. José Antonio Morales Castro & Francisco López-Herrera, 2021. "Ganancias cambiarias en empresas mexicanas y variables fundamentales y económicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    7. Ken Miyajima & Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Weimin Miao & Jongsoon Shin, 2017. "Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia: A Bottom-Up Default Analysis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(4), pages 269-289, December.
    8. José Antonio Morales Castro & Francisco López-Herrera, 2021. "Ganancias cambiarias en empresas mexicanas y variables fundamentales y económicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    9. Abraham,Facundo & Cortina Lorente,Juan Jose & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2020. "Growth of Global Corporate Debt : Main Facts and Policy Challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9394, The World Bank.
    10. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2018. "The (low) fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2583, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    11. Cristián Espinosa D. & Jorge Fernández B. & Francisco Vásquez L., 2017. "Ejercicio de tensión de empresas: una aplicación al sector corporativo no financiero chileno," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(2), pages 128-149, August.
    12. Naoto Higashio & Takahiro Hirakawa & Ryo Nagaushi & Shinsuke Ohyama & Atsushi Takanashi, 2016. "Determinants of Launch Spreads on EM USD-Denominated Corporate Bonds," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    13. Jerome H. Powell, 2017. "Prospects for Emerging Market Economies in a Normalizing Global Economy : a speech at the 2017 Annual Membership Meeting of the Institute of International Finance, Washington, D.C., October 12, 2017," Speech 976, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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