IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2010-002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
  • Mr. Andre O Santos

Abstract

This paper introduces the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) compound option model. The model builds on the observation that the public sector net worth in a multi-period setting corresponds to the value of an option on an option on total government assets. Hence, the ALM compound option model is better suited for analyzing and evaluating the risk profile of public debt than existing one-period models, and is especially useful for analyzing the soundness of exit strategies from the large fiscal expansions undertaken by G-20 countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. As an illustration, the model is used to analyze the risk profile and sustainability of Australia's public debt under different policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2010. "Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework," IMF Working Papers 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23485
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Geske, Robert & Johnson, H. E., 1984. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options: A Correction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 231-232, June.
    3. Fatma Lajeri‐Chaherli, 2002. "A note on the valuation of compound options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(11), pages 1103-1115, November.
    4. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P. J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2004. "The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 41-51, January.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Togo, Eriko, 2007. "Coordinating public debt management with fiscal and monetary policies : an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4369, The World Bank.
    7. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 541-552, November.
    8. Tim Brailsford & John C. Handley & Krishnan Maheswaran, 2008. "Re‐examination of the historical equity risk premium in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(1), pages 73-97, March.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Zaman, Constantin, 2011. "Assessing the Sustainability of Public Finances in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 106-115, June.
    3. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Ali A. Massoud, 2015. "Dealing with the Increasing Public Debt in Egypt," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 17-29, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    2. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    3. Hann-Shing Ju & Ren-Raw Chen & Shih-Kuo Yeh & Tung-Hsiao Yang, 2015. "Evaluation of conducting capital structure arbitrage using the multi-period extended Geske–Johnson model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 89-111, January.
    4. Fernández, Pablo, 1996. "Convertible bonds in Spain: A different security," IESE Research Papers D/311, IESE Business School.
    5. Chen, Ren-Raw & Chidambaran, N.K. & Imerman, Michael B. & Sopranzetti, Ben J., 2014. "Liquidity, leverage, and Lehman: A structural analysis of financial institutions in crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 117-139.
    6. Michael B. Imerman, 2020. "When enough is not enough: bank capital and the Too-Big-To-Fail subsidy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1371-1406, November.
    7. Jonathan A. Batten & Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw & Martin R. Young, 2014. "Convertible Bond Pricing Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 775-803, December.
    8. Yuh‐Dauh Lyuu & Yu‐Quan Zhang, 2023. "Pricing multiasset time‐varying double‐barrier options with time‐dependent parameters," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 404-434, March.
    9. Michael B. Imerman, 0. "When enough is not enough: bank capital and the Too-Big-To-Fail subsidy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-36.
    10. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    11. Liu, Yu-hong & Jiang, I-Ming & Hsu, Wei-tze, 2018. "Compound option pricing under a double exponential Jump-diffusion model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-53.
    12. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, August.
    13. Suvankar Ghosh & O. Felix Offodile, 2016. "A real options model of phased migration to cellular manufacturing," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 894-906, February.
    14. Lee, Meng-Yu & Yeh, Fang-Bo & Chen, An-Pin, 2008. "The generalized sequential compound options pricing and sensitivity analysis," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 38-54, January.
    15. Xiaoyu Tan & Zili Zhang & Xuejun Zhao & Shuyi Wang, 2022. "DeepPricing: pricing convertible bonds based on financial time-series generative adversarial networks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, December.
    16. Lung-Fu Chang & Mao-Wei Hung, 2006. "Valuation of vulnerable American options with correlated credit risk," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-165, September.
    17. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    18. Mohamed N. Abdelghani & Alexander V. Melnikov, 2017. "Optional Defaultable Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Almeida, Caio & Pereira, Leonardo Tavares, 2016. "Pricing Options Embedded in Debentures with Credit Risk," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(1), March.
    20. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.