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Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework

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  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
  • Mr. Andre O Santos

Abstract

This paper introduces the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) compound option model. The model builds on the observation that the public sector net worth in a multi-period setting corresponds to the value of an option on an option on total government assets. Hence, the ALM compound option model is better suited for analyzing and evaluating the risk profile of public debt than existing one-period models, and is especially useful for analyzing the soundness of exit strategies from the large fiscal expansions undertaken by G-20 countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. As an illustration, the model is used to analyze the risk profile and sustainability of Australia's public debt under different policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2010. "Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework," IMF Working Papers 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geske, Robert & Johnson, H. E., 1984. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options: A Correction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 231-232, June.
    2. Fatma Lajeri‐Chaherli, 2002. "A note on the valuation of compound options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(11), pages 1103-1115, November.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. repec:cdl:anderf:qt43n1k4jb is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    6. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P. J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2004. "The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 41-51, January.
    7. Togo, Eriko, 2007. "Coordinating public debt management with fiscal and monetary policies : an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4369, The World Bank.
    8. Tim Brailsford & John C. Handley & Krishnan Maheswaran, 2008. "Re‐examination of the historical equity risk premium in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(1), pages 73-97, March.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Ali A. Massoud, 2015. "Dealing with the Increasing Public Debt in Egypt," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 17-29, January.
    3. Zaman, Constantin, 2011. "Assessing the Sustainability of Public Finances in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 106-115, June.
    4. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.

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