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Evaluation of conducting capital structure arbitrage using the multi-period extended Geske–Johnson model

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  • Hann-Shing Ju
  • Ren-Raw Chen
  • Shih-Kuo Yeh
  • Tung-Hsiao Yang

Abstract

This study utilizes a multi-period structural model developed by Chen and Yeh (Pricing credit default swaps with the extended Geske–Johnson Model. Working paper, 2006 ), which extends the Geske and Johnson (J Financ Quant Anal 19:231–232, 1984 ) compound option model to evaluate the performance of capital structure arbitrage. In the paper, first of all, we predict the default probability for each firm using the multi-period Geske–Johnson model that assumes endogenous default barriers. Second, based on the arbitrage performance of 369 North American obligators from 2004 to 2008, we find that the extended Geske–Johnson model is more suitable than the CreditGrades model for exploiting the mispricing between equity prices and credit default swap spreads. Finally, the Geske–Johnson model also performs well in extreme market condition, such as the financial crisis around 2008. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Hann-Shing Ju & Ren-Raw Chen & Shih-Kuo Yeh & Tung-Hsiao Yang, 2015. "Evaluation of conducting capital structure arbitrage using the multi-period extended Geske–Johnson model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 89-111, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:44:y:2015:i:1:p:89-111
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-013-0400-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Geske, Robert & Johnson, H. E., 1984. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options: A Correction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 231-232, June.
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    11. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg Sokolinskiy, 2019. "Debt rollover-induced local volatility model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1065-1084, May.
    2. Nan Hu & Ling Liu & Lu Zhu, 2018. "Credit default swap spreads and annual report readability," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 591-621, February.
    3. Miriam Marra, 2017. "Explaining co-movements between equity and CDS bid-ask spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 811-853, October.
    4. Vincent Xiang & Michael T. Chng & Victor Fang, 2017. "The economic significance of CDS price discovery," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-30, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural model; Capital structure arbitrage; Geske–Johnson model; G11; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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