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The Relation Between Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours, and Wages

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Michael P. Keane
  • Mr. Eswar S Prasad

Abstract

This paper uses micro panel data to examine differences in the cyclical variability of employment, hours, and real wages for skilled and unskilled workers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that, at the aggregate level, skilled and unskilled workers are subject to essentially the same degree of cyclical variation in wages. However, important differences emerge in the patterns of employment and hours variation for skilled versus unskilled workers, especially when a college degree is used as a proxy for skills. We find that the quality of labor input per manhour tends to rise in recessions, thereby inducing a countercyclical bias in aggregate measures of the real wage. We also find substantial differences across industries in the cyclical variation of employment, hours, and wage differentials, which we interpret as indicative of important inter-industry differences in labor contracting.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Michael P. Keane & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 1993. "The Relation Between Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours, and Wages," IMF Working Papers 1993/044, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1993/044
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    Cited by:

    1. Almut Balleer & Thijs van Rens, 2013. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1222-1237, October.
    2. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2019. "More Education, Less Volatility? The Effect of Education on Earnings Volatility over the Life Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 101-137.
    3. Stuart Glosser & Lonnie Golden, 2005. "Is labour becoming more or less flexible? Changing dynamic behaviour and asymmetries of labour input in US manufacturing," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(4), pages 535-557, July.
    4. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25.
    5. Phil Lewis & Michael Corliss & Anne Daly, 2013. "The Rate of Return to Higher Education Over the Business Cycle," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 16(2), pages 219-236.
    6. Thijs van Rens & Almut Balleer, 2007. "Cyclical Skill-Biased Technological Change," 2007 Meeting Papers 62, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Otrok Christopher & Pourpourides Panayiotis M., 2019. "On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Devereux, Paul J, 2000. "Task Assignment over the Business Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 98-124, January.
    9. Magda Kandil & Jeffrey Woods, 2002. "Employment composition and the cyclical behaviour of the aggregate real wage," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 689-708.
    10. Summerfield, Fraser, 2014. "Labor Market Conditions, Skill Requirements and Education Mismatch," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2014-19, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2014.
    11. Gu, Ran, 2019. "Specific Human Capital and Real Wage Cyclicality: An Application to Postgraduate Wage Premium," MPRA Paper 98027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bhattacharya, Tulika & Bhandari, Bornali & Bairagya, Indrajit, 2020. "Where are the jobs? Estimating skill-based employment linkages across sectors for the Indian economy: An input-output analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 292-308.
    13. Linda S. Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange rates and wages," Staff Reports 116, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Paul J. Devereux, 2004. "Cyclical Quality Adjustment in the Labor Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(3), pages 600-615, January.
    15. Sherif Khalifa, 2009. "Heterogeneous Workers and Occupations: Inequality, Unemployment, and Crowding Out," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1141-1164, April.
    16. Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Sahin, Aysegul, 2006. "Costs of business cycles for unskilled workers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2179-2193, November.
    17. Rui Castro & Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2008. "WHY HAVE AGGREGATE SKILLED HOURS BECOME SO CYCLICAL SINCE THE MID-1980s?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 135-185, February.
    18. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii & Sergiy Stetsenko, 2016. "Taxation and Unemployment in Models with Heterogeneous Workers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 161-189, January.
    19. Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2011. "Implicit contracts and the cyclicality of the skill-premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 963-979, June.
    20. Pedro Portugal & Rodrigo Barrela & Eduardo Costa, 2024. "On the Asymmetrical Sensitivity of the Distribution of Real Wages to Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers w202408, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Botosaru, Irene & Sasaki, Yuya, 2018. "Nonparametric heteroskedasticity in persistent panel processes: An application to earnings dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 283-296.
    22. W.F. Maloney & D. Lederman & J. Messina, 2011. "The Fall of Wage Flexibility," World Bank Publications - Reports 23575, The World Bank Group.
    23. Gu, Ran, 2019. "Specific Capital, Firm Insurance, and the Dynamics of the Postgraduate Wage Premium," MPRA Paper 96254, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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