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Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation

Author

Listed:
  • William R. Cline

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Jared Nolan

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly exaggerates recovery because most of the decline reflects the exit of discouraged workers from the labor force. This study finds instead that one-half to two-thirds of the decline in labor force participation by about 3 percentage points from late 2007 to early 2014 is attributable to aging of the population. Although about one-third is found attributable to the lagged influence of high, and especially long-term, unemployment, going forward the potential rebound in the participation rate from recovery is projected to be approximately offset by further aging of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Cline & Jared Nolan, 2014. "Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation," Working Paper Series WP14-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp14-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market," Reports 45011, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Shigeru Fujita, 2014. "On the causes of declines in the labor force participation rate," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Feb.
    3. repec:upd:utppwp:009 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    5. Robert E. Hall, 2015. "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 71-128.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market," Reports 45011, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market," Reports 45011, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Daniel Aaronson & Jonathan Davis & Luojia Hu, 2012. "Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
    9. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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