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Employment and Growth in an Aging Society. A Simulation Study for Austria

  • Baumgartner, Josef

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Hofer, Helmut

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna)

  • Kaniovski, Serguei

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Schuh, Ulrich

    (Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna)

  • Url, Thomas

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-163.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 163.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:163
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Order Information: Postal: Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna, Austria

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  3. Thomas URL & Josef BAUMGARTNER & Helmut HOFER & Serguei KANIOVSKI & Andreas U. SCHUH, . "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM)," EcoMod2004 330600143, EcoMod.
  4. Christian Thimann & Manfred Koch, 1997. "From Generosity to Sustainability; The Austrian Pension System and Options for its Reform," IMF Working Papers 97/10, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
  6. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2004. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations," WIFO Working Papers 224, WIFO.
  7. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  8. Alois Guger & Christine Mayrhuber, 2001. "Labour Force Participation and Old-Age Pensions," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(2), pages 111-119, February.
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