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Employment and growth in an aging society: a simulation study for Austria

  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Helmut Hofer
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Ulrich Schuh
  • Thomas Url


In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirica.

Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 19-33

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Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:19-33
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  1. Alois Guger & Christine Mayrhuber, 2001. "Labour Force Participation and Old-Age Pensions," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(2), pages 111-119, February.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2004. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations," WIFO Working Papers 224, WIFO.
  4. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  5. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  6. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
  7. Manfred Koch & Christian Thimann, 1999. "From Generosity to Sustainability: The Austrian Pension System and Options for its Reform," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 21-38, March.
  8. Thomas URL & Josef BAUMGARTNER & Helmut HOFER & Serguei KANIOVSKI & Andreas U. SCHUH, . "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM)," EcoMod2004 330600143, EcoMod.
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