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Incentives, shocks or signals: labour supply effects of increasing the female state pension age in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Cribb

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Carl Emmerson

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Gemma Tetlow

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

In 1995, the UK government legislated to increase the earliest age at which women could claim a state pension from 60 to 65 between April 2010 and March 2020. This paper uses data from the first two years of this change coming into effect to estimate the impact of increasing the state pension age from 60 to 61 on the employment of women and their partners using a difference-in-differences methodology. Our methodology controls in a flexible way for underlying differences between cohorts born at different times. We find that women's employment rates at age 60 increased by 7.3 percentage points when the state pension age was increased to 61 and their probability of unemployment increased by 1.3 percentage points. The employment rates of the male partners also increased by 4.2 percentage points. The magnitude of these effects, and the results from subgroup analysis, suggest they are more likely explained by the increase in the state pension age being a shock or through it having a signalling effect rather than them being due to either credit constraints or the effect of individuals responding to changes in their financial incentives to work. Taken together, our results suggest that the fiscal strengthening arising from a one-year increase in the female state pension age is 10% higher than a costing based on no behavioural change, due to additional direct and indirect tax revenues arising from increased earnings. The current version of this working paper was published in January 2014 and replaces an earlier version originally published in March 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Cribb & Carl Emmerson & Gemma Tetlow, 2013. "Incentives, shocks or signals: labour supply effects of increasing the female state pension age in the UK," IFS Working Papers W13/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:13/03
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ifs.org.uk/wps/wp1303revised2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rowena Crawford & Soumaya Keynes & Gemma Tetlow, 2014. "From Me to You? How the UK State Pension System Redistributes," IFS Working Papers W14/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s1793993317500028 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Atalay, Kadir & Barrett, Garry F., 2016. "Pension Incentives and the Retirement Decisions of Couples," IZA Discussion Papers 10013, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Ricky Kanabar, 2012. "Unretirement in England: An empirical perspective," Discussion Papers 12/31, Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Carl Emmerson, 2015. "Disability Benefit Receipt and Reform: Reconciling Trends in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 173-190, Spring.
    6. Stuart Adam & James Browne, 2013. "Do the UK Government’s welfare reforms make work pay," IFS Working Papers W13/26, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2015. "A 2000-es évek magyarországi nyugdíjkorhatár-emeléseinek azonnali hatása az érintett nők munkavállalására
      [The effect raising the retirement age has on the employment rate of older women. Empirical
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 652-673.
    8. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2016. "Reforming in a difficult macroeconomic context: A review of the issues and recent literature," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1297, OECD Publishing.
    9. James Banks & Carl Emmerson & Gemma C. Tetlow, 2014. "Effect of Pensions and Disability Benefits on Retirement in the UK," NBER Working Papers 19907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Simon Rabaté & Julie Rochut, 2017. "Employment and Substitution Effects of Raising the Statutory Eligibility Age in France," Working Papers halshs-01622346, HAL.
    11. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    12. Staubli, Stefan & Lalive, Rafael, 2016. "Ho to Delay Labor Market Exit and Pension Claiming?," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145550, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Cribb, Jonathan & Emmerson, Carl & Tetlow, Gemma, 2016. "Signals matter? Large retirement responses to limited financial incentives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 203-212.
    14. Sarah Le Duigou & Pierre-Jean Messe, 2017. "Pension reforms, older workers' employment and the role of job separation and finding rates in France," TEPP Working Paper 2017-10, TEPP.
    15. repec:kap:itaxpf:v:24:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10797-016-9427-y is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The possible impact of pension age changes on Malta’s potential output," CBM Policy Papers PP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    17. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely, 2014. "What effect does increasing the retirement age have on the employment rate older women? Empirical evidence from retirement age hikes in Hungary during the 2000s," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1403, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    18. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_457 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Richard Blundell & Claire Crawford & Wenchao Jin, 2014. "What Can Wages and Employment Tell Us about the UK's Productivity Puzzle?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 377-407, May.
    20. James Banks & Carl Emmerson & Gemma Tetlow, 2014. "Effect of Pensions and Disability Benefits on Retirement in the United Kingdom," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Disability Insurance Programs and Retirement, pages 81-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early retirement age; labour supply; policy reform; retirement;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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