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Simultaneous Causality in International Trade

  • Enzo Weber

This paper proposes estimating causalities in bilateral international trade in simultaneous systems, including domestic and foreign GDP as well as mutual trade flows. Conventional macroeconomic theory mainly follows partial approaches like import functions or export-led growth. Focusing on the US relations with Euroland and Canada, cointegration analyses however reveal, that the system dynamics, and so both im- and exports, are simply governed by US GDP shocks. In conclusion, exploring sources and effects of international trade should be seen as an inherently empirical task.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2007-018.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2007-018.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-018
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  1. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1," Econometrics Working Papers 0001, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  2. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
  4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  5. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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