IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2007-019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional and Outward Economic Integration in South-East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Enzo Weber

Abstract

The subject of this paper tackles questions of macroeconomic integration of the South-East Asian countries South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Economically, the analysis is based on notions of stochastic long-run convergence and business cycle synchrony in the GDPs. According tests for cointegration and common serial correlation features reveal a high degree of coherence in long-run growth and medium-run fluctuations. This allows extracting a common stochastic growth trend and a common business cycle. Further analysis shows, both of these components are subject to stronger influences from the US than from Japan. Convergence towards these matured economies conspicuously appears since the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Weber, 2007. "Regional and Outward Economic Integration in South-East Asia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2007-019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "Determining p-values for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 19-39, January.
    2. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Enzo Weber, 2009. "Macroeconomic Integration in Asia-Pacific: Common Stochastic Trends and Business Cycle Coherence," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 84-106, May-July.
    4. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    5. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 117-141, May.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    7. Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2000. "Permanent‐transitory Decomposition in Var Models With Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-532, September.
    8. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 313-348, April.
    9. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, 2008. "A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 515-529.
    10. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    13. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    14. Lee Kian Lim & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Convergence and catching up in ASEAN: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 137-153.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    17. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2002. "Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 667-685, November.
    18. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    19. W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-10, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    20. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
    21. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    22. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    23. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-422, August.
    24. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    25. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-532, September.
    26. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Enzo Weber, 2013. "Economic integration and the foreign exchange," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 201-215, June.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Volodymyr Perederiy, 2007. "Kombinierte Liquiditäts- und Solvenzkennzahlen und ein darauf basierendes Insolvenzprognosemodell für deutsche GmbHs," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-060, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enzo Weber, 2009. "Macroeconomic Integration in Asia-Pacific: Common Stochastic Trends and Business Cycle Coherence," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 84-106, May-July.
    2. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Common and uncommon sources of growth in Asia Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 20-36, March.
    3. Alain W. HECQ, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Latin America: A 2-step vs an Iterative Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 258, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Elizabeth C. Wakerly & Byron G. Scott & James M. Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    5. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2007. "Common shocks, common dynamics, and the international business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 149-166, January.
    6. Chen, Xiaoshan & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "Evaluating growth cycle synchronisation in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 342-351, March.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Output dynamics of the G7 countries--stochastic trends and cyclical movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2239-2247.
    8. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 303-323, November.
    9. Hecq, A.W. & Issler, J.V., 2012. "A common-feature approach for testing present-value restrictions with financial data," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino & Bueno, Amadeus & Trompieri, Nicolino, 2014. "Análise de Integração Financeira na América do Sul," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    11. Håvard Hungnes, 2010. "Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 551-565, August.
    12. Michel Beine & Bertrand Candelon & Alain Hecq, 2000. "Assessing a Perfect European Optimum Currency Area: A Common Cycles Approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 115-132, June.
    13. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:2:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
    15. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
    16. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "The effect of data transformation on common cycle, cointegration, and unit root tests: Monte Carlo results and a simple test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 195-229, May.
    17. Christoph Schleicher, 2007. "Codependence in cointegrated autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 137-159.
    18. Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 271-292, April.
    19. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Byrne, Joseph P. & Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Structural breaks in the real exchange rate and real interest rate relationship," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 138-151.
    21. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Partial Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Terms," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-35, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Convergence; Cointegration; Common Cycles; South-East Asia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.