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Value-at-Risk Calculations with Time Varying Copulae

Author

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  • Enzo Giacomini
  • Wolfgang Härdle

Abstract

Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio is determined by the multivariate distribution of the risk factors increments. This distribution can be modelled through copulae, where the copulae parameters are not necessarily constant over time. For an exchange rate portfolio, copulae with time varying parameters are estimated and the VaR simulated accordingly. Backtesting underlines the improved performance of time varying copulae.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle, 2005. "Value-at-Risk Calculations with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-004
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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2005-004.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Hardle & Helmut Herwartz & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2003. "Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 55-95.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomini, Enzo & Härdle, Wolfgang & Spokoiny, Vladimir, 2009. "Inhomogeneous Dependence Modeling with Time-Varying Copulae," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 224-234.
    2. Wei Xu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "On the systemic nature of weather risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(2), pages 267-284, August.
    3. Sigbert Klinke & Uwe Ziegenhagen & Yuval Guri, 2005. "Yxilon – a Modular Open-Source Statistical Programming Language," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Nguyen, Cuong C., 2012. "Diversification evidence from international equity markets using extreme values and stochastic copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 622-646.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk; VaR; portfolio; copulae;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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