How Do Macroeconomic Developments in Mainland China Affect Hong Kong's Short-term Interest Rates?
This paper studies the significance of Mainland-related shocks in determining Hong Kong money market interest rates after controlling for the influences of US variables. Analysis using a vector auto-regression model suggests that an unexpected rise in the Mainland policy interest rate, or a higher-than-expected growth in Mainland output or money supply, in general produces a positive and hump-shaped effect on the three-month HIBOR. Forecast error variance decomposition shows that US shocks still dominate, but Mainland shocks have become more important in accounting for the unexpected fluctuations in HIBOR in recent years. A historical decomposition shows that from autumn 2003 to spring 2005 the large negative spread between HIBOR and LIBOR was mainly due to Mainland factors. Thus, while the HIBOR-LIBOR spread is expected to be bounded inside a band that reflects the width of the Convertibility Zone of the Linked Exchange Rate system, Mainland-related shocks could exert a significant influence on the actual size of the spread.
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- Hans Genberg, 2003.
"Foreign Versus Domestic Factors as Souces of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Hong Kong,"
172003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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- Bernard Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China; Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
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- Wensheng Peng & Frank Leung, 2005. "A Monetary Conditions Index for Mainland China," Working Papers 0501, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
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