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Technology Classification for the Purposes of Futures Studies

Author

Listed:
  • Ilya Kuzminov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Dirk Meissner

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Alina Lavrynenko

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Elena Tochilina

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

The paper analyses problems associated with technologies classification for the purposes of futures studies, in order to ensure definitive inclusion of technologies in specific classes/types when conventional approaches to classification are applied. The evolution of classification approaches in the scope of science philosophy is shortly reviewed, together with the latest research on expert-based and computerised (algorithmic) classification and methodological dilemmas related to hierarchical aggregation of technological and production processes are analysed. Common problems with classifying technologies and industries frequently encountered in the age of converging technologies are examined, using the agricultural sector and related industries as an example. A case study of computerised classification of agricultural technologies based on clustering algorithms is presented, with a brief analysis of the potential and limitations of the methodology. For doing so a two-stage approach to classifying technologies is suggested, based on distinguishing between platform (multipurpose) and industry-specific technologies. An adaptive approach to analysing technological structures is proposed, based on many-to-many relationships and fuzzy logic principles.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilya Kuzminov & Dirk Meissner & Alina Lavrynenko & Elena Tochilina, 2018. "Technology Classification for the Purposes of Futures Studies," HSE Working papers WP BRP 78/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:78sti2018
    as

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    File URL: https://wp.hse.ru/data/2018/01/18/1163295162/78STI2018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    classification; typology; futures studies; science and technology development; technological structure; industry structure; text mining; tagging; network structures; fuzzy logic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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