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Innovation system foresight


  • Andersen, Allan Dahl
  • Andersen, Per Dannemand


The practice and concept of foresight have developed over several decades. However, the academic literature that addresses foresight is mainly descriptive, and it is generally acknowledged that there is a gap between practice and theory in foresight. This article contributes to building the theoretical underpinnings of foresight. The article explores the co-evolution of the academic field of innovation studies and the practice and concept of foresight. The article illustrates that foresight is importing the dominant understanding of innovation from innovation studies with a time lag. Currently, foresight is in a catching-up process vis-à-vis innovation studies by gradually incorporating the implications of a systemic understanding of innovation. The latter is reflected in the current research gaps in foresight. This paper concludes that the concept of innovation system foresight (ISF) constitutes an improved integration of the contemporary understanding of innovation into foresight. Furthermore, the article explores four preliminary implications of ISF on the conceptual design of foresight, including the goal of foresight, system definition and boundary setting, participation of actors, and finally, methods for mapping the present. These four implications also constitute avenues for further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Allan Dahl & Andersen, Per Dannemand, 2014. "Innovation system foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 276-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:88:y:2014:i:c:p:276-286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.016

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Malerba, Franco, 2002. "Sectoral systems of innovation and production," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 247-264, February.
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    7. Jan Fagerberg & Koson Sapprasert, 2011. "National innovation systems: the emergence of a new approach," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(9), pages 669-679, November.
    8. Antoine Schoen & T. Könnölä & P. Warnke & R. Barre & S. Kuhlmann, 2011. "Tailoring Foresight to field specificities," Post-Print hal-00645795, HAL.
    9. Bergek, Anna & Jacobsson, Staffan & Carlsson, Bo & Lindmark, Sven & Rickne, Annika, 2008. "Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems: A scheme of analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 407-429, April.
    10. Jan Fagerberg & David C Mowery & Bart Verspagen, 2009. "The evolution of Norway's national innovation system," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(6), pages 431-444, July.
    11. Martin, Ben R., 2012. "The evolution of science policy and innovation studies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1219-1239.
    12. Fagerberg, Jan & Landström, Hans & Martin, Ben R., 2012. "Exploring the emerging knowledge base of ‘the knowledge society’," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1121-1131.
    13. Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-1171, September.
    14. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
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    16. Lundvall, Bengt-Ake & Johnson, Bjorn & Andersen, Esben Sloth & Dalum, Bent, 2002. "National systems of production, innovation and competence building," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 213-231, February.
    17. Cristiano Cagnin & Effie Amanatidou & Michael Keenan, 2012. "Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 140-152, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:tefoso:v:125:y:2017:i:c:p:188-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dominique Laousse & Sophie Hooge, 2015. "Innovative urban temporalities: conceptive and generative temporal regimes," Post-Print hal-01174923, HAL.
    3. repec:eee:tefoso:v:129:y:2018:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:col:000411:015719 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Pietrobelli, Carlo & Puppato, Fernanda, 2016. "Technology foresight and industrial strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 117-125.
    6. Kayser, Victoria, 2017. "Comparing public and scientific discourse in the context of innovation systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 348-357.
    7. repec:eee:tefoso:v:119:y:2017:i:c:p:227-236 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:2253-:d:121843 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andersen, Allan Dahl & Andersen, Per Dannemand, 2017. "Foresighting for inclusive development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 227-236.
    10. Pietrobelli C. & Puppato F., 2015. "Technology foresight and industrial strategy in developing countries," MERIT Working Papers 016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. repec:eee:tefoso:v:120:y:2017:i:c:p:298-310 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Johnston, Ron & Saritas, Ozcan, 2017. "FTA and Innovation Systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 236-239.
    13. Ilya Kuzminov & Dirk Meissner & Alina Lavrynenko & Elena Tochilina, 2018. "Technology Classification for the Purposes of Futures Studies," HSE Working papers WP BRP 78/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    14. repec:hig:fsight:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:6-24 is not listed on IDEAS


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