Fiscal Implications of Aids in South Africa
The number of people living with HIV is alarmingly large. In addition to the incomprehensible human suffering of those directly affected, AIDS also has large, negative economic effects. In this paper, I study the fiscal implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa in a standard neo-classical growth model. I find that an antiretroviral program is to a large extent self financing. Improvement in dependency ratios and health care cost savings would pay for Rand 144 billion of a full epidemiological intervention. The indirect effect through the changing demographic structure will be more important than the direct health care cost saving effect. I also explore different taxation policies. The households would be willing to sacrifice an amount equal to 12% of GDP in the first period to be subject to an optimal (Ramsey) fiscal policy rather than an alternative fixed debt to GDP policy. The optimal policy implies an increase in government debt during the peak of the epidemic.
|Date of creation:||04 Dec 2006|
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- Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
- David Domeij & Martin Floden, 2006.
"The Labor-Supply Elasticity and Borrowing Constraints: Why Estimates are Biased,"
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- Martin FlodÈn, 2003. "Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Aging Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 379-400, 09.
- Flodén, Martin, 2002. "Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Ageing Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
- C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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