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Downside risk of derivative portfolios with mean-reverting underlyings

We carry out a Monte-Carlo simulation of a standard portfolio management strategy involving derivatives, to estimate the sensitivity of its downside risk to a change of mean-reversion of the underlyings. We find that the higher the intensity of mean-reversion, the lower the probability of reaching a pre-determined loss level. This phenomenon appears of large statistical significance for large enough loss levels. We also find that the higher the mean-reversion intensity of the underlyings, the longer the expected time to reach those loss levels. The simulations suggest that selecting underlyings with high mean-reversion effect is a natural way to reduce the downside risk of those widely traded assets.

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File URL: http://static.sdu.dk/mediafiles//Files/Om_SDU/Institutter/Ivoe/Disc_papers/Disc_2009/dpbe2_2009.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark in its series Discussion Papers of Business and Economics with number 2/2009.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2009_002
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark
Phone: 65 50 32 33
Fax: 65 50 32 37
Web page: http://www.sdu.dk/ivoe
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  1. Demirer, Riza & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Downside risk for short and long hedgers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-44.
  2. Basak, Suleyman & Shapiro, Alex & Teplá, Lucie, 2005. "Risk Management with Benchmarking," CEPR Discussion Papers 5187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm54, Yale School of Management.
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