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EMU Effects on International Trade and Investment

Author

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  • Flam, Harry

    (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)

  • Jansson, Per

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

The partial effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on exports from each EMU member to the rest of the EMU is estimated on annual data for 1967-1997, using modern time series methods. The long run relations between exchange rate volatility and exports are mostly negative and in several cases insignificantly different from zero. Thus, these estimates do not provide much support for the hypothesis that the elimination of nominal exchange rate volatility will significantly increase trade within the EMU. However, the EMU will presumably lead to geographical concentration of production and therefore indirectly to increased trade within the EMU and – during a transitional stage – to increased foreign direct investment, both within the EMU and between the EMU and the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Flam, Harry & Jansson, Per, 2000. "EMU Effects on International Trade and Investment," Seminar Papers 683, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0683
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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Tyrowicz, 2007. "The OCA Theory and Its Empirical Application for the EMU," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 45-60.
    2. Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2009. "When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe CEECs. Labour Market Institutions upon Euro Zone Accession," MPRA Paper 15045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Lessons from Postwar Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 2723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Calmfors, Lars, 2001. "Wages and wage-bargaining institutions in the EMU – a survey of the issues," Seminar Papers 690, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    5. Dorrucci, Ettore & Firpo, Stefano & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America," Working Paper Series 0185, European Central Bank.
    6. Dorrucci, Ettore & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Firpo, Stefano, 2002. "European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America," Working Paper Series 185, European Central Bank.
    7. Lars Calmfors, 2001. "Wages and Wage-Bargaining Institutions in the EMU – A Survey of the Issues," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 325-351, December.

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    Keywords

    trade; exchange rates; monetary union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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