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Mortality and the business cycle: Evidence from individual and aggregated data

Author

Listed:
  • van den Berg, Gerard J.

    (Department of Economics, University of Bristol; IFAU)

  • Gerdtham, Ulf G.

    (Health Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Lund University; Department of Economics, Lund University; Centre fo Economic Demography, Lund University)

  • von Hinke, Stephanie

    (Department of Economics, University of Bristol)

  • Lindeboom, Maarten

    (School of Business and Economics, Lund University)

  • Sundquist, Jan

    (Faculty of Medicine, Lund University)

  • Lissdaniels, Johannes

    (Health Economics Unit, Dept. of Clinical Sciences, Lund University; Swedish Agency for Health and Care Services Analysis)

  • Sundquist, Kristina

    (Faculty of Medicine, Lund University)

Abstract

There has been much interest recently in the relationship between economic conditions and mortality, with some studies showing that mortality is pro-cyclical, while others find the opposite. Some suggest that the aggregation level of analysis (e.g. individual vs. regional) matters. We use both individual and aggregated data on a sample of 20-64 year-old Swedish men from 1993 to 2007. Our results show that the association between the business cycle and mortality does not depend on the level of analysis: the sign and magnitude of the parameter estimates are similar at the individual level and the aggregate (county) level; both showing pro-cyclical mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Gerard J. & Gerdtham, Ulf G. & von Hinke, Stephanie & Lindeboom, Maarten & Sundquist, Jan & Lissdaniels, Johannes & Sundquist, Kristina, 2017. "Mortality and the business cycle: Evidence from individual and aggregated data," Working Paper Series 2017:28, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2017_028
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.005
    Note: Published in: Journal of Health Economics, December 2017, vol. 56, pp. 61-70, "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.005"
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    Cited by:

    1. Haji Mohammad Neshat Ghojagh & Lotfali Agheli & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Mohammad Javad Kabir & Vahid Taghvaee, 2024. "Economic instability, income, and unemployment effects on mortality: using SUR panel data in Iran," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 555-570, December.
    2. Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Propper, Carol & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A., 2020. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Health in Britain: Aggregation, Dynamics and Local Area Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 13091, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Akee, Randall K. Q. & Feir, Donn. L. & Gorzig, Marina Mileo & Myers Jr, Samuel, 2022. "Native American 'Deaths of Despair' and Economic Conditions," IZA Discussion Papers 15546, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Michael Cauvel & Miguel Alejandro Sanchez, 2023. "Life Expectancy and the Labor Share in the U.S," Working Papers PKWP2308, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
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    6. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Heckley, Gawain & Lissdaniels, Johannes, 2020. "Estimating the Causal Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Income-Related Mortality," Working Papers 2020:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
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    8. Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Propper, Carol & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A., 2023. "Economic conditions and health: Local effects, national effect and local area heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 801-828.
    9. Kerry L. Papps & Alex Bryson & James Reade, 2023. "Running Up that Hill: Fitness in the Face of Recession," DoQSS Working Papers 23-03, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    10. Guccio, C. & Pignataro, G. & Vidoli, F., 2024. "It never rains but it pours: Austerity and mortality rate in peripheral areas," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Paul, Alexander & Reinhold, Steffen, 2020. "Economic conditions and the health of newborns: Evidence from comprehensive register data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga & Hauksdóttir, Arna & Ruhm, Christopher & Valdimarsdóttir, Unnur Anna & Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey, 2020. "The effect of the economic collapse in Iceland on the probability of cardiovascular events," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    13. Fontana, Stefania & Guccio, Calogero & Pignataro, Giacomo & Romeo, Domenica, 2026. "Cash transfers and health outcomes: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    14. Vinicius Curti Cícero & Lucas Cardoso Corrêa Dias & Sammy Zahran, 2025. "Trade Liberalization and Mortality Rates: Evidence of Pro‐Cyclical Mortality From Brazil," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 392-414, March.
    15. Munford, Luke A. & Fichera, Eleonora & Sutton, Matt, 2020. "Is owning your home good for your health? Evidence from exogenous variations in subsidies in England," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    16. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Paul, Alexander & Reinhold, Steffen, 2018. "Economic Conditions, Parental Employment and Health of Newborns," IZA Discussion Papers 11338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Sun, Zhen & Cheng, Lei, 2021. "Air pollution and procyclical mortality: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Paul, Alexander & Reinhold, Steffen, 2018. "Econometric analysis of the effects of economic conditions on the health of newborns," Working Paper Series 2018:24, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    19. Antony, Jürgen & Klarl, Torben, 2020. "Estimating the income inequality-health relationship for the United States between 1941 and 2015: Will the relevant frequencies please stand up?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    20. Giri, Jeeten Krishna & Kumaresan, Talitha, 2021. "The business cycle, health behavior, and chronic disease: A study over Three decades," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    21. Clifford Afoakwah & Son Nghiem & Paul Scuffham & Joshua Byrnes, 2021. "Rising unemployment reduces the demand for healthcare services among people with cardiovascular disease: an Australian cohort study," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(4), pages 643-658, June.
    22. Konstantinos N. Zafeiris, 2020. "Gender differences in life expectancy at birth in Greece 1994–2017," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 73-89, March.
    23. Federico Belotti & Joanna Kopinska & Alessandro Palma & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2022. "Health status and the Great Recession. Evidence from electronic health records," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 1770-1799, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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