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General Quadratic Term Structures of Bond, Futures and Forward Prices

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Abstract

For finite dimensional factor models, the paper studies general quadratic term structures. These term structures include as special cases the affine term structures and the Gaussian quadratic term structures, previously studied in the literature. We show, however, that there are other, non-Gaussian, quadratic term structures and derive sufficient conditions for the existence of these general quadratic term structures for bond, futures and forward prices. As forward prices are martingales under the T-forward measure, their term structure equation depends on properties of bond prices' term structure. We exploit the connection with the bond prices term structure and show that even in quadratic short rate settings we can have affine term structures for forward prices. Finally, we show how the study of futures prices is naturally embedded in a study of forward prices and show that the difference between the two prices have to do with the correlation between bond prices and the price process of the underlying to the forward contract and this difference may be deterministic in some (non-trivial) stochastic interest rate settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaspar, Raquel M., 2004. "General Quadratic Term Structures of Bond, Futures and Forward Prices," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 559, Stockholm School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0559
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    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/hastef/papers/hastef0559.pdf
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    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
    3. Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2002. "Asset Pricing under the Quadratic Class," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(02), pages 271-295, June.
    4. Damir Filipović, 2002. "Separable Term Structures And The Maximal Degree Problem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 341-349.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    7. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    8. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Quadratic Term Structure Models: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 243-288, March.
    9. Miltersen, Kristian R. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1998. "Pricing of Options on Commodity Futures with Stochastic Term Structures of Convenience Yields and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(01), pages 33-59, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roger Lord & Christian Kahl, 2006. "Optimal Fourier Inversion in Semi-analytical Option Pricing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-066/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 05 Jun 2007.
    2. Roger Lord & Christian Kahl, 2006. "Why the Rotation Count Algorithm works," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-065/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2005. "Quadratic Portfolio Credit Risk models with Shot-noise Effects," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 616, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. Gaspar, Raquel M., 2004. "On Finite Dimensional Realizations of Forward Price Term Structure Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 569, Stockholm School of Economics.
    5. Zorana Grbac & Laura Meneghello & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2015. "Derivative pricing for a multi-curve extension of the Gaussian, exponentially quadratic short rate model," Papers 1512.03259, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    6. Cody Hyndman & Xinghua Zhou, 2014. "Explicit solutions of quadratic FBSDEs arising from quadratic term structure models," Papers 1410.1220, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure; bond price; futures price; forward price; affine term structure; quadratic term structure;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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