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Entwicklung eines Modells zur Bevölkerungsprojektion - Modellrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung bis 2060

Author

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  • Bowles, David
  • Zuchandke, Andy

Abstract

Population projections – especially those of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany – are often used for research questions that depend on the future size and structure of the population. Nevertheless, by using the population projections of the Federal Statistical Office the scope of analysis is limited to the provided dataset with little variation in underlying assumptions possible. Moreover, one does not have full information about the assumptions and methods used. This paper presents a self-developed population projection model and compares the results with the publicly available projections of the Federal Statistical Office. The results reflect a high level of similarity regarding the future size and structure of the German population; observed differences originate from varying assumptions. The developed projection model can be easily applied to different settings (e.g. healthcare, long-term care or education) and features the opportunity to analyze the impact of different components of population change on results in a more flexible way.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowles, David & Zuchandke, Andy, 2012. "Entwicklung eines Modells zur Bevölkerungsprojektion - Modellrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung bis 2060," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-499, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-499
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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-499.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riphahn, Regina T. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "The Mortality Crisis in East Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 6, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung; Kohorten-Komponenten-Methode; Demografischer Wandel;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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