IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joprea/v35y2018i2d10.1007_s12546-018-9201-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposition: population ageing at a sub-national level using Tasmania, Australia as a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Denny

    (University of Tasmania)

Abstract

While population ageing is considered a ‘major concern’ by over half the governments worldwide according to the UN and ‘the most important population issue for the ensuing two decades’ by a 2012 survey of leading demographers, research into population ageing and its causes at a sub-national level has only emerged more recently. This paper introduces a model for identifying the factors influencing the change in the mean age of a population. Through decomposition the model identifies how, and to what extent, each component of demographic change (fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration) contributes to the overall change in the mean age of the population over a given period. The paper uses the State of Tasmania, Australia to quantify, for the first time, the difference between national and sub-national population ageing. It finds that from 2005 to 2015, Tasmania’s predicted mean age increased by an average of 0.222 years per annum compared with 0.108 years per annum for Australia. This differential of 0.114 years is largely explained by the ageing effect of interstate migration, averaging 0.073 years per annum, which is not relevant at a national level. The paper confirms that as regional differences between fertility and mortality levels within a nation are usually small, it is migration which is predominantly responsible for different changes in the mean age of the population between national and sub-national levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Denny, 2018. "Decomposition: population ageing at a sub-national level using Tasmania, Australia as a case study," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 151-167, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:35:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s12546-018-9201-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-018-9201-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12546-018-9201-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12546-018-9201-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samuel Preston & Christine Himes & Mitchell Eggers, 1989. "Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 691-704, November.
    2. Tialda Haartsen & Viktor Venhorst, 2010. "Planning For Decline: Anticipating On Population Decline In The Netherlands," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 101(2), pages 218-227, April.
    3. Fazley Siddiq & Shira Babins, 2013. "Trends in Population Growth Inequality across Subnational Jurisdictions in Canada 1," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 41-64, May.
    4. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Maccheroni, 2016. "The Actuarial Aging of Italian Veterans of World War I Born 1889-1901 and a Comparison to the Cohorts Born During the Years Immediately Following," Working papers 036, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    2. Hiska Ubels & Bettina Bock & Tialda Haartsen, 2019. "An evolutionary perspective on experimental local governance arrangements with local governments and residents in Dutch rural areas of depopulation," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 37(7), pages 1277-1295, November.
    3. Henseke, Golo & Tivig, Thusnelda, 2013. "Alterung in Berufen: Der Beitrag ökonomischer Einflüsse," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80001, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. James W. Vaupel & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2002. "Decomposing demographic change into direct vs. compositional components," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14.
    5. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    6. Koomen, E., 2011. "Indicators of rural vitality. A GIS-based analysis of socio-economic development of the rural Netherlands," Serie Research Memoranda 0050, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Tom Wilson, 2016. "Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(2), pages 241-261, April.
    8. Joe Chen & Shih-Chang Huang, 2020. "Suicide, Aging, and Permanent Income: A Social Norms Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 867-885, August.
    9. Bowles, David & Zuchandke, Andy, 2012. "Entwicklung eines Modells zur Bevölkerungsprojektion - Modellrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung bis 2060," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-499, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Kim, Hyun Kyung & Lee, Sang-Hyop, 2021. "The effects of population aging on South Korea’s economy: The National Transfer Accounts approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Alicia H. Munnell & Geoffrey Sanzenbacher & Alice Zulkarnain, 2020. "What Factors Explain the Decline in Widowed Women’s Poverty?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1881-1902, October.
    12. Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Tianyu Shen & Collin Payne, 2021. "The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(44), pages 1073-1084.
    13. Paul Benneworth & Willem-Jan Velderman & Martin Stienstra, 2016. "Social Entrepreneurship and Shrinking Regions paper thoughts," CHEPS Working Papers 201604, University of Twente, Center for Higher Education Policy Studies (CHEPS).
    14. Tony Sorensen, 2014. "Forecasting in social science research: imperatives and pitfalls," Chapters, in: Robert Stimson (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Spatially Integrated Social Science, chapter 12, pages 210-235, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. James Raymer & Andrei Rogers, 2007. "Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 199-223, May.
    16. -, 2016. "The development of population projections for the Turks and Caicos Islands 2012-2027," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40406, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Janssen, Fanny & Kunst, Anton E. & Mackenbach, Johan P., 2006. "Association between gross domestic product throughout the life course and old-age mortality across birth cohorts: Parallel analyses of seven European countries, 1950-1999," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 239-254, July.
    18. Heike Delfmann, 2012. "Population change and new firm formation in urban and rural regions," ERSA conference papers ersa12p466, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2014. "New firm formation and its effect on employment growth in declining regions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1133, European Regional Science Association.
    20. John A. Doces, 2011. "Globalization and Population: International Trade and the Demographic Transition," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 127-146, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:35:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s12546-018-9201-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.