IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03827870.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Too Complex to Digest ? Federal Tax Bills and Their Processing in US Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Hamza Bennani

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    (CESifo - CESifo, Trier University)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze whether the complexity of tax bills affects financial markets. Based on the Flesch-Kincaid grade level of the 32 tax bills identified by Romer and Romer (2010) in the period 1962-2003, we assess the relationship between tax bills' complexity and financial markets using an event study approach. Our results show a negative (positive) and significant relationship between the present value of tax bills and changes in the 10-year government bond yields (S&P 500 returns). The magnitude of this relationship increases over time, suggesting that market participants underreact at first and need a couple of days to digest the information contained in the tax bills. This delay can be explained by the textual characteristics of the bills in the case of the 10-year yields as a lower readability partly offsets the negative relationship for up to three days after the signing of a tax bill, but not thereafter. In the case of the stock market, we find similar offsetting evidence, but only for a part of the readability measures employed in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2022. "Too Complex to Digest ? Federal Tax Bills and Their Processing in US Financial Markets," Working Papers hal-03827870, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03827870
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03827870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03827870/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2014. "Measuring Readability in Financial Disclosures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1643-1671, August.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Talmi, Jonathan, 2020. "Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 48-62.
    5. Jansen, David-Jan, 2011. "Mumbling with great incoherence: Was it really so difficult to understand Alan Greenspan?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 70-72, October.
    6. Hun‐Tong Tan & Elaine Ying Wang & Bo Zhou, 2014. "When the Use of Positive Language Backfires: The Joint Effect of Tone, Readability, and Investor Sophistication on Earnings Judgments," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 273-302, March.
    7. Li, Feng, 2008. "Annual report readability, current earnings, and earnings persistence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 221-247, August.
    8. Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-418, May.
    9. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    10. Roberto Perotti, 2012. "The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, but Not Small Either," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 214-237, May.
    11. Yen†Jung Lee, 2012. "The Effect of Quarterly Report Readability on Information Efficiency of Stock Prices," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 1137-1170, December.
    12. Kaplow, Louis, 1996. "How Tax Complexity and Enforcement Affect the Equity and Efficiency of the Income Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(1), pages 135-150, March.
    13. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    14. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    15. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Bloomfield, Robert, 2008. "Discussion of "Annual report readability, current earnings, and earnings persistence"," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 248-252, August.
    17. Daron Acemoglu, 2006. "A Simple Model of Inefficient Institutions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(4), pages 515-546, December.
    18. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
    19. Toke S. Aidt, 2003. "Economic analysis of corruption: a survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 632-652, November.
    20. Kenneth Benoit & Kevin Munger & Arthur Spirling, 2019. "Measuring and Explaining Political Sophistication through Textual Complexity," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(2), pages 491-508, April.
    21. Kaplow, Louis, 1996. "How Tax Complexity and Enforcement Affect the Equity and Efficiency of the Income Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(1), pages 135-50, March.
    22. Hopkins, PE, 1996. "The effect of financial statement classification of hybrid financial instruments on financial analysts' stock price judgments," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 33-50.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Kneller & Florian Misch, 2017. "A Survey On The Output Effects Of Tax Reforms From A Policy Perspective," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 165-192, January.
    2. Syed M. Hussain & Lin Liu, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of discretionary tax changes in Canada: Evidence from a new narrative measure of tax shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 78-107, February.
    3. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2014. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100408, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    5. Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
    6. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2018. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 428-439, April.
    7. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    8. Alloza, Mario & Sanz, Carlos & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29187, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    9. Hussain, Syed M. & Liu, Lin, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks: New narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. James Cloyne & Nicholas Dimsdale & Natacha Postel-Vinay, 2018. "Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain," NBER Working Papers 24659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Susana Párraga Rodríguez, 2023. "The aggregate effects of government income transfers shocks: EU evidence," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, March.
    12. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    13. Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Asymmetric tax multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-48.
    14. Anh D. M. Nguyen & Luisanna Onnis & Raffaele Rossi, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Income and Consumption Tax Changes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 439-466, May.
    15. Giovanni Angelini & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2023. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Estimated with Proxy‐SVARs Robust?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 95-122, February.
    16. Adi Brender & Eran Politzer, 2014. "The Effect of Legislated Tax Changes on Tax Revenues in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2014.08, Bank of Israel.
    17. Nazari, Jamal A. & Hrazdil, Karel & Mahmoudian, Fereshteh, 2017. "Assessing social and environmental performance through narrative complexity in CSR reports," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 166-178.
    18. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    19. Bossie, Andrew, 2020. "The asymmetric response of the economy to tax changes before and after 1980," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2017. "Taxation and consumption: evidence from a representative survey of the German population," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(53), pages 5477-5490, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Complexity; Event Study; Financial Markets; Readability; Tax Bills;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03827870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.