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Making Only America Great? Non-U.S. Market Reactions to U.S. Tax Reform


  • Fabio B. Gaertner

    () (University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706;)

  • Jeffrey L. Hoopes

    () (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599;)

  • Braden M. Williams

    () (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)


We study the foreign externalities of the recent U.S. tax reform, commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Specifically, we examine foreign firms’ stock returns around key tax reform events. We find significant heterogeneity in market responses by country, industry, and firm. Chinese firms experience large negative returns, especially in steel, business equipment, and chemical manufacturers, whereas the rest of the world experiences positive returns. Firms operating in more differentiated product markets experience positive returns, whereas firms in financial distress experience negative returns, consistent with the TCJA having competitive repercussions. We also find that firms experiencing decreases in effective tax rates following tax reform experience positive returns. Overall, our results suggest that the TCJA had varied, yet systematic effects on foreign firms’ shareholders’ wealth and the global competitive landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio B. Gaertner & Jeffrey L. Hoopes & Braden M. Williams, 2020. "Making Only America Great? Non-U.S. Market Reactions to U.S. Tax Reform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 687-697, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:2020:i:2:p:687-697
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3451

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michelle Hanlon & Jeffrey L. Hoopes & Joel Slemrod, 2019. "Tax Reform Made Me Do It!," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 33-80.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    3. Bernard, Darren, 2016. "Is the risk of product market predation a cost of disclosure?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 305-325.
    4. Feng Li & Russell Lundholm & Michael Minnis, 2013. "A Measure of Competition Based on 10‐K Filings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 399-436, May.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier & Collins, Christopher G. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Pellet, Thomas & Wilson, Beth Anne, 2018. "A year of rising dangerously? The U.S. stock market performance in the aftermath of the presidential election," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 489-502.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.
    2. Chin Chia Liang & Carol Troy & Ellen Rouyer, 2020. "The Stock Price Impact of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1747-1755.

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