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How did Fukushima-Daiichi core meltdown change the probability of nuclear accidents?


  • Lina Escobar Rangel

    () (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Lévêque

    () (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)


What increase in probability the Fukushima Dai-ichi event does entail? Many models and approaches can be used to answer these questions. Poisson regression as well as Bayesian updating are good candidates. However, they fail to address these issues properly because the independence assumption in which they are based on is violated. We propose a Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA) based in a state-space time series approach to overcome this critical drawback. We find an increase in the risk of a core meltdown accident for the next year in the world by a factor of ten owing to the new major accident that took place in Japan in 2011.

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  • Lina Escobar Rangel & François Lévêque, 2012. "How did Fukushima-Daiichi core meltdown change the probability of nuclear accidents?," Working Papers hal-00740684, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00740684
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kadak, Andrew C. & Matsuo, Toshihiro, 2007. "The nuclear industry's transition to risk-informed regulation and operation in the United States," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(5), pages 609-618.
    2. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2008. "The costs of failure: A preliminary assessment of major energy accidents, 1907-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1802-1820, May.
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    nuclear risk; nuclear safety; time series count data;
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