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La Présence De Banques Étrangères En Europe De L'Est : Quels Risques Financiers ?

  • Sophie Brana

    ()

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954)

  • Delphine Lahet

    ()

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954)

La crise financière de 2007-2008 qui a notamment frappé les banques de l'UE-15 souligne la vulnérabilité des PECO à l'arrêt soudain des entrées de capitaux de ces banques, fortement créancières, ainsi que leur vulnérabilité aux crises de balance des paiements. Les PECO sont, en fait, soumis à deux types de risques financiers que nous analysons dans cet article et qui sont croissants tout au long de la décennie 2000. Le premier est lié à l'exposition financière directe entre pays de l'UE-15 et PECO. Le second, indirect, est associé au risque de contagion régionale, via les effets de spillover et le canal du créancier commun. Nous montrons que l'Estonie est soumise à ces deux types de risques, tandis que la Lettonie, la Lituanie, la Roumanie, la Bulgarie et la Hongrie sont vulnérables à leur exposition directe aux créanciers extérieurs. Enfin, des pays en apparence moins exposés aux risques directs, comme la République tchèque ou la Slovaquie, ne sont pas à l'abri de problèmes bancaires et peuvent être victimes de phénomènes de contagion régionale.

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Date of creation: 22 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00616580
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