La Présence De Banques Étrangères En Europe De L'Est : Quels Risques Financiers ?
The 2008-09 financial crisis highlights the CEE countries' vulnerability to the western European banks' outflows and to balance-of-payment crises because of a shrink in cross border claims or problems in the parent banks that may affect subsidiaries and consequently local claims. In fact, the CEE countries are submitted to two financial risks that are analyzed in the article. The direct financial exposition between western European banks and CEE countries represents the first risk. The second risk corresponds to regional financial contagion, through spillover effects and the common creditor channel. The article points that Estonia is concerned by all the risks. Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary are the most exposed to FX risks. Czech Republic and Slovakia are more submitted to indirect risks than to direct risks. Whereas these two countries are less exposed to FX risks, interbank links point that they may be affected by banking troubles because of regional contagion.
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