IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03471577.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomics in the age of secular stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The "Great Recession" that began in 2008 plunged the economy into long-lasting stagnation with high unemployment, depressed output and very low inflation. This crisis, whose exceptional duration is difficult to explain using the theoretical tools of contemporary macroeconomics, invites us to enrich fundamental analysis. Conceptualizing secular stagnation is then based on the introduction of market imperfections such as credit rationing on the financial market as well as nominal rigidities on the labour market. The resulting equilibrium is characterized by the underemployment of factors of production (high unemployment, low capital accumulation) associated with a fall in prices (deflation) and monetary policy that is inactive because of the zero lower bound constraint on the key rate. In a period of secular stagnation, the impact of economic policies is affected, and many Keynesian properties appear: a deflationary impact of supply policies, ineffective conventional monetary policy and a positive effect of public spending, although limited by the crowding out of private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2018. "Macroeconomics in the age of secular stagnation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471577, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03471577
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.157.0069
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03471577
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03471577/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3917/reof.157.0069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. G. Mankiw, 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
    2. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-1386, November.
    3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    4. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and Education: Good Data, Good Results," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754251, HAL.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    6. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    7. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    8. Black, Fischer, 1995. "Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    9. Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation targeting and optimal monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 15-42.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o24q1t4948rnq6736t85td2gv is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 19895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    13. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    15. Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "Faut-il encore utiliser le concept de croissance potentielle ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 255-290.
    16. Verdugo, G., 2013. "Les salaires réels ont-ils été affectés par les évolutions du chômage en France avant et pendant la crise ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 192, pages 71-79.
    17. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-279, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2017. "La macroéconomie à l’heure de la stagnation séculaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 79-104.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3n80vv97pd9vbosga5d7p1mnrc is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53mu57n92f9ir8pv4cpba1kkba is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53mu57n92f9ir8pv4cpba1kkba is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3n80vv97pd9vbosga5d7p1mnrc is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Capital accumulation and the dynamic of secular stagnation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5us58cpgu693aofrbe48ajd552 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2015. "Stagnation séculaire et accumulation de capital," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 307-337.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5us58cpgu693aofrbe48ajd552 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/70e22p50bv87u8gqv59vblij09 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Caractéristiques et dynamique de l'équilibre de stagnation séculaire," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03567907, HAL.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/70e22p50bv87u8gqv59vblij09 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/69n0a0mntc92to9jgrhc3ppj6u is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    15. Vladimir Asriyan & Luca Fornaro & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2021. "Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World [Money and Capital in a Persistent Liquidity Trap]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1418-1456.
    16. Mathieu Boullot, 2017. "Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Trap and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01295012, HAL.
    17. Michael Assous & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2017. "Challenging Lucas: from overlapping generations to infinite-lived agent models," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_03, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    18. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    22. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/69n0a0mntc92to9jgrhc3ppj6u is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Brito Paulo & Marini Giancarlo & Piergallini Alessandro, 2016. "House prices and monetary policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 251-277, June.
    24. Tobón Arias, Alexander, 2022. "La estructura lógica de la teoría del equilibrio general dinámico estocástico," Borradores Departamento de Economía 20477, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    25. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Jacopo Bonchi, 2023. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy: Revisiting the Nexus at the Zero Lower Bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 186-203, January.
    27. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    28. Voosholz, Frauke, 2014. "A survey on modeling economic growth. With special interest on natural resource use," CAWM Discussion Papers 69, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    29. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 67-116.
    31. Weizsäcker, Robert K. von & Wigger, Berthold U., 2001. "Rentenfinanzierung und intergenerationelle Gerechtigkeit : Eine wachstumstheoretische Perspektive," Discussion Papers 606, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    32. Bacchetta, Philippe & Benhima, Kenza & Kalantzis, Yannick, 2020. "Money and capital in a persistent liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 70-87.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03471577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.