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Faut-il encore utiliser le concept de croissance potentielle ?

Listed author(s):
  • Henri Sterdyniak

Les concepts de production et de croissance potentiels restent très utilisés dans les débats de politique économique. La première partie de l’article en discute les fondements théoriques et en montre les ambiguïtés. Il existe plusieurs définitions de la production potentielle, selon les contraintes prises en compte. Celle-ci ne peut être évaluée hors d’une analyse macroéconomique complexe. La deuxième partie présente et discute les travaux empiriques récents évaluant la croissance potentielle ; elle examine la façon dont ils ont passé la crise de 2008 et la manière dont ils rendent compte d’une éventuelle rupture de la croissance potentielle. Elle montre les limites des méthodes utilisées qui aboutissent souvent à justifier des politiques contra-cycliques. La dernière partie présente le débat sur la croissance potentielle future. Elle montre que le problème n’est pas tant son éventuel ralentissement, que l’incapacité des pays développés à élaborer une stratégie économique permettant d’atteindre une croissance de plein emploi, compte tenu des contraintes induites par la mondialisation.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): N° 142 (2015)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 255-290

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_142_0255
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