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Le commencement de la déflation. Perspectives 2013-2014

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Ce numéro spécial sur les prévisions est composé de plusieurs articles qui peuvent être lus indépendamment. Le premier article présente le scénario de prévision pour l'ensemble du monde et le deuxième pour la zone euro. Le troisième article détaille l'analyse conjoncturelle de la France. Des fiches pays et thématiques suivent ces deux articles, détaillant d'autres zones géographiques. Une première étude spéciale traite de la déflation salariale et de son lien avec la compétitivité ; elle s'intitule « La quête de la compétitivité ouvre la voie de la déflation ». La seconde intitulée « PIB, déficit, dette, chômage : où vont les économies à moyen terme ? » aborde les perspectives à moyen terme concernant le potentiel d'activité, les déficits et la dette publique. Insérés dans cette prévision, 17 encadrés abordent des points spécifiques. Enfin, le débat sur les perspectives économiques permet de confronter les analyses de l'OFCE à celles d'Axelle Lacan et d'Edouard Tétreau.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Le commencement de la déflation. Perspectives 2013-2014," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03470593, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03470593
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03470593
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
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    3. Gérard Cornilleau & Henri Sterdyniak, 2011. "Commentaires sur l'article. « Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle : une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables »," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 113-119.
    4. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de La Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle," Post-Print hal-03389354, HAL.
    5. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    6. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
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    8. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
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