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PIB, déficit, dette, chômage : où vont les économies à moyen terme ?

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  • Marion Cochard
  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

Abstract

Le potentiel de production, son niveau, sa croissance et l'output gap qui en résulte sont, à l'image du multiplicateur budgétaire, des indicateurs essentiels pour déterminer les stratégies macroéconomiques à suivre à moyen terme. Pour autant, leurs mesures sont sujettes à un grand nombre de controverses, notamment au sein des institutions internationales (FMI, Commission européenne et OCDE) qui peinent à s'accorder sur ces sujets. Notre évaluation des variations d'output gap, effectuée à partir des données portant sur le marché du travail, nous révèle un creusement important de l'écart de production au cours de la crise et des différences très fortes entre les pays. Dans le même temps, nos simulations de trajectoires macroéconomiques à moyen terme font apparaître le coût économique et social élevé associé à une stratégie de réduction rapide des déficits publics de manière coordonnée dans l'ensemble des pays de la zone euro. Il ressort des différents scénarios testés (multiplicateur faible, prime de risque, croissance potentielle réduite) qu'une stratégie équilibrée et optimale se traduirait par une réduction modérée et progressive des déséquilibres budgétaires structurels. Les nouveaux délais accordés à un certain nombre de pays européens pour ramener leur déficit public en-dessous du seuil d'un déficit à 3 % du PIB semblent aller dans ce sens.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Cochard & Mathieu Plane & Danielle Schweisguth, 2013. "PIB, déficit, dette, chômage : où vont les économies à moyen terme ?," Post-Print hal-01024844, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01024844
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.129.0299
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01024844v2
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