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La Suisse et la zone euro : votre monnaie, notre problème ? La possibilité d'un ancrage de jure

  • Cyriac Guillaumin

    ()

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II : EA4625)

  • Guillaume Vallet

    ()

    (UFR ESE - UPMF - Faculté d'Économie - Grenoble 2 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

Avec les récentes tensions au sein de la zone euro, le franc suisse s'est fortement apprécié face à l'euro, jouant un rôle de monnaie refuge internationale. Même si la Suisse n'est pas membre de l'Union européenne (UE), son degré élevé d'intégration de facto à celle-ci fait qu'une telle appréciation se transmet à l'économie réelle. Ainsi, si l'indépendance et l'autonomie monétaires officielles de la Suisse en Europe ont des avantages, elles induisent aussi des coûts non négligeables, notamment liés au statut particulier du franc suisse. Nous étudions dans cet article l'opportunité et la viabilité pour la Suisse d'une intégration monétaire "médiane" à l'UE qui permettrait de desserrer cette contrainte extérieure du taux de change, à savoir un ancrage de jure du franc suisse à l'euro. En nous intéressant plus précisément aux origines des fluctuations du taux de change du franc suisse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel, nous mettons en évidence que l'ancrage serait viable pour la Suisse mais au prix d'une perte d'autonomie monétaire significative.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00641224
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