What if energy decoupling of emerging economies were not so spontaneous? An illustrative example on India
Reference GHG emissions scenarios are critical for estimates of the costs of stabilization and for climate policy recommendations. But recently, existing reference scenarios, notably the SRES, have been the target of criticisms that question their relevance in the light of current emissions trends, dispute the suitability, for developing countries, of the modeling methodologies used and suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on an illustrative example on India. It proposes an alternative reference scenario built with a modeling framework representing as realistically as possible the processes driving energy intensity and carbon intensity changes, in particular accounting for the interactions between energy systems and economic constraints and capturing the sub-optimalities of the energy sector. The mechanisms leading to moderate energy decoupling in this alternative scenario are analysed. From a methodological point of view, our results call for the improvement of the realism of modeling tools for scenarios elaboration. From a mitigation point of view, it appears that the challenge for climate policies to lift the barriers to the diffusion of energy efficiency improvement in India is considerable, but we identify a potential for synergies between development policies and climate policies.
|Date of creation:||06 Feb 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00366274|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Celine Guivarch, 2010.
"IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways,"
International Journal of Global Environmental Issues,
Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 5-24.
- Jean-Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch, 2010. "IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways," Post-Print hal-00566290, HAL.
- Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Gonand, Frédéric & Antolín, Pablo & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Yoo, Kwang-Yeol, 2005.
"The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/11049, Paris Dauphine University.
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
- Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
- Thakur, Tripta & Deshmukh, S.G. & Kaushik, S.C., 2006. "Efficiency evaluation of the state owned electric utilities in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2788-2804, November.
- Graus, W.H.J. & Voogt, M. & Worrell, E., 2007. "International comparison of energy efficiency of fossil power generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3936-3951, July.
- Renaud Crassous, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous Structural Change and Climate Targets Modeling Experiments with Imaclim-R," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 259-276.
- Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous structural change and climate targets," Post-Print halshs-00009335, HAL.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00366274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.