IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04133736.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do investors care about carbon risk? The impact of the Paris agreement on the inflation hedging performance of commodities

Author

Listed:
  • Refk Selmi

    (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School)

Abstract

It is growingly recognized that a transition to sustainable finance is of utmost importance to scale up the low-carbon investments required to reach the global climate goals. However, financial capital is still widely allocated into economic activities whose profits rely significantly on fossil fuels' extraction, combustion and use, and that do not align to the Paris agreement (PA) targets. This study tests whether the PA has redefined the role of commodities in the portfolio allocation of asset managers, and has unleashed the potential to use this class of assets as an inflation hedge. It assesses whether financial markets are pricing the PA by decreasing the portfolio weights of carbon-intensive commodities afterwards. A dynamic portfolio analysis has been conducted to assess the impact of the PA on the inflation hedging abilities of energy commodities, industrial metals and precious metals. We find evidence that the weight of the copper-one metal that is expected to be a cornerstone of a low-carbon future-within an optimal portfolio tends to increase after the PA. With focus on efforts to achieve a low carbon economy continuing to grow, investors started to consider copper and other industrial metals including cobalt, nickel and aluminum as appealing investment opportunities, but they remain cautious on divesting from the carbon-intensive assets. Overall, our findings suggest that investors are responding to opportunities but less to risks in a low carbon pathway.

Suggested Citation

  • Refk Selmi, 2023. "Do investors care about carbon risk? The impact of the Paris agreement on the inflation hedging performance of commodities," Post-Print hal-04133736, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04133736
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04133736
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04133736/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Refk Selmi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Youssef Errami & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Is COVID-19 Related Anxiety an Accelerator for Responsible and Sustainable Investing ? A Sentiment Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(13), pages 1528-1539, March.
    3. Andrew C. Worthington & Mosayeb Pahlavani, 2007. "Gold investment as an inflationary hedge: cointegration evidence with allowance for endogenous structural breaks," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 259-262.
    4. Marie Briere & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation-hedging portfolios: Economic regimes matter," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/253373, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    6. Kroencke, Tim Alexander & Schindler, Felix, 2010. "Downside risk optimization in securitized real estate markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-034, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    8. Marcelo Ochoa & Matthias Paustian & Laura Wilcox, 2022. "Do Sustainable Investment Strategies Hedge Climate Change Risks? Evidence from Germany's Carbon Tax," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    10. Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1997. "Gold and commodity prices as leading indicators of inflation: Tests of long-run relationship and predictive performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 475-489.
    11. repec:taf:raflxx:v:3:y:2007:i:4:p:259-262 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Post-Print hal-01494498, HAL.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    14. Tim‐Alexander Kroencke & Felix Schindler, 2010. "Downside risk optimization in securitized real estate markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(6), pages 434-453, September.
    15. Tim‐Alexander Kroencke & Felix Schindler, 2010. "Downside risk optimization in securitized real estate markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(6), pages 434-453, September.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9296 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Molenaar, Roderick D.J. & Schotman, Peter C. & Steenkamp, Tom B.M., 2008. "Strategic asset allocation with liabilities: Beyond stocks and bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2939-2970, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    2. Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Nicolas Pesci & Jean-Philippe Aguilar & Victor James & Fabien Rouillé, 2022. "Inflation Forecasts and European Asset Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
    5. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo, 2020. "On the inflation risks embedded in sovereign bond yields," Working Paper Series 2423, European Central Bank.
    6. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    7. Aye, Goodness C. & Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is gold an inflation-hedge? Evidence from an interrupted Markov-switching cointegration model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 77-84.
    8. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Olubiyi, Ebenezer A. & Adedeji, Adedayo O., 2023. "The inflation-hedging performance of industrial metals in the world's most industrialized countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    10. Hanan Naser, 2017. "Can Gold Investments Provide a Good Hedge Against Inflation? An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 470-475.
    11. Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark & Deisting, Florent & Kasmaoui, Kamal, 2023. "Dynamic inflation hedging performance and downside risk: A comparison between Islamic and conventional stock indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 56-67.
    12. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Tahir, Hammad, 2021. "What do we know about the inflation-hedging property of precious metals in Africa? The case of leading producers of the commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    14. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    15. Charbel Bassil & Hassan Hamadi & Patrick Mardini, 2019. "Gold and oil prices: stable or unstable long-run relationship," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 57-72, January.
    16. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-276.
    18. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Ndako, Umar B., 2020. "The inflation hedging properties of gold, stocks and real estate: A comparative analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Ahmad Alrazni Alshammari, Basheer Altarturi, Buerhan Saiti, Latifah Munassar, 2020. "The impact of exchange rate, oil price and gold price on the Kuwaiti stock market: a wavelet analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 17(1), pages 31-54, June.
    20. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; Inflation; Hedge; Decarbonization; The Paris agreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04133736. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.