IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03471457.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

L'investissement des entreprises pénalisé par le Brexit

Author

Listed:
  • Magali Dauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

À l'heure où les perspectives de commerce mondial demeurent orientées à la baisse, la demande intérieure britannique peine à rester dynamique : la consommation des ménages s'est essoufflée en fin d'année tandis que l'investissement chute de 0,2 % en 2018. Cette dernière baisse est à imputer en quasi-totalité à l'investissement des entreprises non financières (55% de la FBCF en volume) qui a baissé consécutivement durant les quatre trimestres de l'année (graphique 1) : atteignant -2,6 % en 2018. L'investissement peut être expliqué par un modèle à correction d'erreur. Celui utilisé à l'OFCE pour les prévisions de l'investissement des entreprises non financières au Royaume-Uni bénéficie d'un ajustement pouvant être considéré comme « correct » au regard de son pouvoir explicatif (le coefficient de détermination est de 85%) sur la période pré-referendum (1987T2 – 2016T2). Si nous simulons la trajectoire de l'investissement après le référendum de 2016 (en bleu clair), on remarque que celle-ci dévie des données d'investissement reportées par l'ONS (bleu foncé) de façon systématique. Ce résultat est conforme à ceux que l'on peut trouver dans la littérature récente montrant également que les modèles tendent systématiquement à surévaluer le taux d'investissement des entreprises britanniques depuis 2016. De 0,5 point de PIB en 2017, l'écart n'a cessé de progresser en 2018 pour atteindre un peu plus d'un point de PIB au dernier trimestre.

Suggested Citation

  • Magali Dauvin, 2019. "L'investissement des entreprises pénalisé par le Brexit," Post-Print hal-03471457, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03471457
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03471457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03471457/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    3. Smietanka, Pawel & Bloom, Nicholas & Mizen, Paul, 2018. "Business investment, cash holding and uncertainty since the Great Financial Crisis," Bank of England working papers 753, Bank of England.
    4. Lucyna Gornicka, 2018. "Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK," IMF Working Papers 2018/247, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magali Dauvin, 2019. "L'investissement des entreprises pénalisé par le Brexit," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471457, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7iihtr8act9028t9oobh1hhpoh is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7iihtr8act9028t9oobh1hhpoh is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    6. Lucyna Gornicka, 2018. "Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK," IMF Working Papers 2018/247, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Sugata Marjit & Debashis Mukherjee & Lei Yang, 2019. "British Stock Market, BREXIT and Media Sentiments - A Big Data Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7760, CESifo.
    8. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Marjit, Sugata & Mukherjee, Debashis & Yang, Lei, 2023. "The British Stock Market, currencies, brexit, and media sentiments: A big data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Saffar, Walid & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "How economic policy uncertainty affects the cost of raising equity capital: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    11. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
    13. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    14. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    15. Z. Jun Lin & Shengqiang Liu & Fangcheng Sun, 2017. "The Impact of Financing Constraints and Agency Costs on Corporate R&D Investment: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 3-42, March.
    16. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    17. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    18. Rungmaitree, Pattamon & Boateng, Agyenim & Ahiabor, Frederick & Lu, Qinye, 2022. "Political risk, hedge fund strategies, and returns: Evidence from G7 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Camelia M. Kuhnen & Paul Oyer, 2016. "Exploration for Human Capital: Evidence from the MBA Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 255-286.
    20. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    21. Aydin Ozkan & Roberto J. Santillán‐Salgado & Yilmaz Yildiz & María del Rocío Vega Zavala, 2020. "What Happened To The Willingness Of Companies To Invest After The Financial Crisis? Evidence From Latin American Countries," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 231-262, May.
    22. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03471457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.