The predictive role of counterfactuals
We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. <10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6>|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888|
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