The predictive role of counterfactuals
We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. <10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6>|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stalnaker, Robert, 1996. "Knowledge, Belief and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 133-163, October.
- Pierpaolo Battigalli, .
"Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games,"
111, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Battigalli, Pierpaolo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 1999. "Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 188-230, September.
- Aumann, Robert J., 1995. "Backward induction and common knowledge of rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 6-19.
- Dov Samet, 1994.
"Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information,"
Game Theory and Information
9408001, EconWPA, revised 17 Aug 1994.
- Samet, Dov, 1996. "Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 230-251, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00712888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.