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The predictive role of counterfactuals

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  • Alfredo Di Tillio
  • Itzhak Gilboa
  • Larry Samuelson

Abstract

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Di Tillio & Itzhak Gilboa & Larry Samuelson, 2013. "The predictive role of counterfactuals," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 167-182, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:74:y:2013:i:2:p:167-182
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stalnaker, Robert, 1996. "Knowledge, Belief and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 133-163, October.
    2. Battigalli, Pierpaolo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 1999. "Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 188-230, September.
    3. Aumann, Robert J., 1995. "Backward induction and common knowledge of rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 6-19.
    4. Samet, Dov, 1996. "Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 230-251, December.
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