IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gwi/wpaper/2020-18.html

The IMF's Financial Catch 22: Global Banker or Lender of Last Resort?

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen B. Kaplan

    (George Washington University)

  • Sujeong Shim

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has dual institutional roles: a steward of international financial stability and a global banker safeguarding the resources of its sovereign shareholders. But, how does the IMF behave when its balance sheet becomes exposed to higher-than-usual credit risk, creating a financial catch-22? We expect the IMF varies its lending behavior, based on the nature of sovereign credit crises. When there is high contagion risk, the IMF aims to preserve global financial stability as a lender of last resort by extending large loans, notwithstanding its balance sheet strains. The IMF employs policy conditionality to hedge its lending risk, but prioritizes alleviating global market turmoil over program compliance. When market contagion is contained, however, the IMF is more likely to act as a traditional banker, suspending programs for non- compliance. Ironically, given its tendency to forgive non-compliance as a lender of last resort, our theoretical framework suggests that the Fund intensifies its moral hazard problem. We test our theoretical priors by conducting a comparative case study analysis of IMF decision-making over time for two of its largest borrowers: Argentina and Greece. Leveraging volumes of hundred-paged minutes from IMF executive board meeting archives and extensive field research interviews, we illustrate the lending stances of IMF directors evolve in response to changes in global contagion risk. By examining the IMF's own institutional agency under high financial risk, this study offers new insights for the study of international political economy and international organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen B. Kaplan & Sujeong Shim, 2020. "The IMF's Financial Catch 22: Global Banker or Lender of Last Resort?," Working Papers 2020-18, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2020-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2020WP/KaplanIIEP2020-18.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, November.
    2. McDowell, Daniel, 2017. "Brother, Can You Spare a Billion?: The United States, the IMF, and the International Lender of Last Resort," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190605766.
    3. Edwin M. Truman (ed.), 2006. "Reforming the IMF for the 21st Century," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3870, October.
    4. Anna J. Schwartz, 1999. "Is There a Need for an International Lender of Last Resort?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 1-6, Spring/Su.
    5. Vreeland,James Raymond & Dreher,Axel, 2014. "The Political Economy of the United Nations Security Council," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521518413, November.
    6. Lipscy, Phillip Y. & Lee, Haillie Na-Kyung, 2019. "The IMF As a Biased Global Insurance Mechanism: Asymmetrical Moral Hazard, Reserve Accumulation, and Financial Crises," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 489-489, April.
    7. Bhanot, Karan & Burns, Natasha & Hunter, Delroy & Williams, Michael, 2014. "News spillovers from the Greek debt crisis: Impact on the Eurozone financial sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 51-63.
    8. Songying Fang & Erica Owen, 2011. "International institutions and credible commitment of non-democracies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 141-162, July.
    9. Edwin M. Truman, 2006. "Reforming the IMF for the 21st Century," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr19, October.
    10. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
    11. Nelson, Stephen C., 2014. "Playing Favorites: How Shared Beliefs Shape the IMF's Lending Decisions," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 297-328, April.
    12. Jeffrey M. Chwieroth, 2015. "Professional ties that bind: how normative orientations shape IMF conditionality," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 757-787, August.
    13. Susanne Lütz & Sven Hilgers & Sebastian Schneider, 2019. "Accountants, Europeanists and Monetary Guardians: bureaucratic cultures and conflicts in IMF-EU lending programs," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 1187-1210, November.
    14. Stubbs, Thomas H. & Kentikelenis, Alexander E. & King, Lawrence P., 2016. "Catalyzing Aid? The IMF and Donor Behavior in Aid Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 511-528.
    15. Lipscy, Phillip Y. & Lee, Haillie Na-Kyung, 2019. "The IMF As a Biased Global Insurance Mechanism: Asymmetrical Moral Hazard, Reserve Accumulation, and Financial Crises," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 35-64, January.
    16. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    17. Caraway, Teri L. & Rickard, Stephanie J. & Anner, Mark S., 2012. "International Negotiations and Domestic Politics: The Case of IMF Labor Market Conditionality," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 27-61, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kern, Andreas & Nosrati, Elias & Reinsberg, Bernhard & Sevinc, Dilek, 2023. "Crash for cash: Offshore financial destinations and IMF programs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Kaplan & Sujeong Shim, 2021. "Global Contagion and IMF Credit Cycles: A Lender of Partial Resort?," Working Papers 2021-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    2. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    3. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    4. Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Thomas Stubbs & Lawrence King & Centre for Business Research, 2018. "The World System & the Hollowing-out of State Capacity: How Structural Adjustment Programs Impact Bureaucratic Quality in Developing Countries," Working Papers wp503, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    5. Iasmin Goes, 2023. "Examining the effect of IMF conditionality on natural resource policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 227-285, March.
    6. Valentin Lang, 2021. "The economics of the democratic deficit: The effect of IMF programs on inequality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 599-623, July.
    7. Hugo Oriola & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects?," Working Papers hal-04648446, HAL.
    8. Bernhard Reinsberg & Thomas Stubbs & Alexander Kentikelenis, 2022. "Compliance, defiance, and the dependency trap: International Monetary Fund program interruptions and their impact on capital markets," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 1022-1041, October.
    9. Lang, Valentin F. & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2018. "Room for discretion? Biased decision-making in international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Daniel McDowell, 2017. "Need for speed: The lending responsiveness of the IMF," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 39-73, March.
    11. Chungshik Moon & Byungwon Woo, 2022. "Curse of friendship: IMF programme, friendship with the United States and foreign direct investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2188-2221, July.
    12. Copelovitch, Mark & Rickard, Stephanie, 2021. "Partisan technocrats: how leaders matter in international organizations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112215, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Donnat, Grégory, 2025. "IMF programs for growing out of debt: Evidence of a catalytic effect on foreign direct investment," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    14. Julien Reynaud & Fabien Lange & Łukasz Gątarek & Christian Thimann, 2011. "Proximity in Coalition Building," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 111-132, September.
    15. Franck A. Malan, 2018. "Does being an IMF executive board member (Re)pay? An examination of IMF loans and repayments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2669-2690, October.
    16. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Gavin, Michael A., 2025. "Influence by omission: The IMF’s lending capacity and central bank design," MPRA Paper 125739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Clancy, Daragh & Gabriele, Carmine & Žigraiová, Diana, 2022. "Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Oberdabernig, Doris A., 2013. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-142.
    19. Stubbs, Thomas & Kentikelenis, Alexander & Stuckler, David & McKee, Martin & King, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of IMF conditionality on government health expenditure: A cross-national analysis of 16 West African nations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 220-227.
    20. Stephanie J. Rickard & Teri L. Caraway, 2019. "International demands for austerity: Examining the impact of the IMF on the public sector," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 35-57, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2020-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kyle Renner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iigwuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.